In May, Poland’s industrial Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed a sharp negative surprise. It fell from 50.20 points in April to 47.10 points currently, while the forecast was 50.40. This marks the largest monthly drop since mid-2022. Every category saw a decline—orders, employment, production, purchases, and inventories.
This reading looks even worse when compared to the PMI for the Eurozone industry, which stood at 49.4 against a forecast of 48.4 and a previous reading of 49. Germany, Poland’s main trading partner, also recorded a drop in industrial PMI, from 48.40 to 48.30, with a forecast of 48.8.
For Poland, it currently seems too early to draw far-reaching conclusions from this reading. It might be a one-off “glitch” or a temporary setback. The coming months will provide clearer indications—especially given a slight “cooling” of the market in relation to tariffs and trade wars.
Author: Szymon Gil, Investment Advisor, CIIA, Director of Strategic Clients, Michael / Ström Brokerage House
