The international real estate advisory firm Cushman & Wakefield has published its Q1 2025 summary of the Polish industrial and warehouse market. After ten years of dynamic expansion, the sector is now entering a more stable development phase. Data from January to March shows a slowdown in tenant activity and associated developer operations. By the end of March, approximately 1.4 million sqm of warehouse space was under construction—the lowest level since September 2017 and more than three times less than the record-high volume of March 2022.
ECONOMY: Polish PMI Index Finally Above 50 Points
According to Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS), the country’s GDP growth reached 2.9% in 2024, with projections for over 3% growth in 2025 driven by revived infrastructure investments and EU funding inflows. Industrial production, which increased only 0.3% in 2024, accelerated to 0.9% y/y in Q1 2025 and 3.8% y/y in March (seasonally adjusted).
The PMI index, a key industrial performance indicator, surpassed the expansion threshold in February for the first time in over two years, reaching 50.6 points, and improved to 50.7 points in March—signaling a clear improvement in industry sentiment. Germany is also showing signs of recovery, with industrial output rising 3.0% m/m in March—the best result in four years—driven mainly by automotive (+8.1%) and machinery production (+4.4%), suggesting the beginning of a cyclical rebound, said Anita Mikusek, Senior Research Consultant at Cushman & Wakefield.
DEMAND: Fewer New Leases, Record Share of Renewals
Warehouse demand in Q1 2025 reached 1.1 million sqm, a 16% y/y increase but 11% below the 2020–2024 average for Q1. Notably, the share of lease renegotiations hit a record 56% of total transaction volume—up from over 40% during 2023–2024 and 10 percentage points above the 2020–2022 average, according to Adrian Semaan, Senior Research Consultant.
The volume of new leases and expansions reached nearly 490,000 sqm, a 20% y/y decrease. This drop may be due to short-term demand fluctuations and the lease finalization surge at the end of 2024, when tenant activity peaked at 1.06 million sqm.
Currently, tenants are less eager to expand or relocate quickly, due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Still, there is rising interest in production facilities and e-commerce-related logistics spaces. Whether this trend will drive net demand growth and new investments remains unclear and will depend largely on global market conditions.
In the long term, Poland’s industrial real estate fundamentals remain strong, supported by cost competitiveness, continued e-commerce growth, and reshoring/nearshoring trends, explains Damian Kołata, Partner, Head of Industrial & Logistics/E-Commerce CEE, Cushman & Wakefield.
SUPPLY: Developer Activity at an 8-Year Low
In Q1 2025, developers delivered nearly 680,000 sqm of space, bringing total warehouse stock in Poland to about 35.3 million sqm.
At the end of March, 1.4 million sqm of space was under construction—a 41% y/y drop, marking the lowest level since 2017. In Q1 alone, developers started 309,000 sqm, 92% of which was located in the Mazowieckie and Łódzkie provinces. A return to global trade stability and gradual absorption of vacant space may revive development activity over the next 12 months, adds Adrian Semaan.
The share of speculative development has dropped to 41%, translating to about 570,000 sqm available for lease—the lowest level since H2 2020, when COVID-related uncertainty stalled many projects.
In today’s market, banks and developers are highly cautious, launching projects only when existing stock is substantially leased or pre-lease agreements are signed. Fully speculative projects are rare and limited to core submarkets with low vacancy, such as southwest Warsaw. Mazowieckie leads in new warehouse development (27% of total), followed by Śląskie (20%) and Łódzkie (18%), adds Damian Kołata.
RENTS: Effective Rates Under Pressure
Base rents remain stable at €3.60–€5.75/sqm/month for big-box warehouses and €4.00–€8.25/sqm/month for SBU/City Logistics projects. Most current listings involve new or recent buildings, often priced above €4.20/sqm/month.
Oversupply, especially in western and central Poland, has led developers to become more flexible during lease negotiations. With financial incentives, effective rental rates can be 15–25% lower than base rents, notes Adrian Semaan.
VACANCY: Temporary Increase in Unleased Space
By the end of Q1 2025, the vacancy rate rose to 8.5%, up 1.0 pp q/q and 0.3 pp y/y. The highest rates were recorded in Lubuskie (22.9%), Świętokrzyskie (17.2%), and Dolnośląskie (11.6%). The lowest were in Podlaskie (0%), Warmińsko-Mazurskie (0%), and Opolskie (2.4%).
Between January and March, unleased space grew to a record 2.99 million sqm, a 416,000 sqm increase, mainly driven by new speculative supply—348,000 sqm of which remained available. Additional space came from two major project vacancies in Rzepin and Sulęcin.
However, the decline in speculative developments is expected to contain further vacancy growth, concludes Adrian Semaan.
Source: CEO.com.pl – Cushman & Wakefield Industrial Market Report
