The beginning of 2025 brought a noticeable revival after the December stagnation in the housing markets of the biggest metropolises. It seems that potential buyers of new apartments are slowly realizing that further delaying of the purchase decision no longer makes sense.
“In January, developers sold more new apartments than in December. However, it is still too early to say that the demand for them is already on the rise,” says Marek Wielgo, expert of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.
Data from BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl shows that in January, developers operating in the seven largest metropolises found buyers for a total of about 3.8 thousand apartments, which is as much as 37% more than in December. This result looks much less impressive – only 5% more – compared to the average monthly sales from the last three months of the previous year, which amounted to just over 3.6 thousand apartments. In all of 2024, developers sold each month an average of over 4.1 thousand. So in this comparison, January sales are 8% down.
However, attention should be paid to local differences. For instance, the revival of demand for new apartments can so far only be spoken about in the case of Krakow and Poznan. Developers in the Tri-City and the cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis can also look to the future with slight optimism, as there too, January sales were clearly higher than the monthly average from the fourth quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, Warsaw and Wroclaw are experiencing stagnation, whereas at the sales offices of many Lodz developer companies, presumably an alarm bell has started ringing.
“The Lodz market is highly dependent on the availability of loans, which has so far improved mostly on paper. Let’s remember that the borrowing capacity of potential apartment buyers is severely limited by rising living costs. According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), for example, the prices of electricity were as much as 21% higher in December than in the same period a year earlier. We paid over 13% more for water, and not everyone can count on a pay rise,” comments the expert from RynekPierwotny.pl.
At the same time, he admits that a signal has emerged from the mortgage loan market that this year might be better than the last. The latest data from the Credit Information Bureau (BIK) shows that January brought an increase in the number of people interested in taking out housing loans after two months of declines. The appropriate application was submitted to the banks by 28.3 thousand people, which is 9% more than in December, but also roughly the same as the monthly average throughout 2024.
“Part of the potential apartment buyers were holding off on buying an apartment in anticipation of the new loan support program. The government’s indecision in this matter probably reminded many of the old folk saying: “Can you count? Count on yourself.” In this situation, more and more people are likely to conclude that there is no point in further delaying the purchase decision, since the choice of apartments has never been so great, and developers are tempting with various bonuses and even a few percent price reductions,” says the expert from RynekPierwotny.pl.
Transaction prices are certainly lower than the offer prices. By how much? Developer companies don’t share this knowledge. However, when it comes to the average price per square meter of apartments offered by them, January was another month of stabilization. Data from BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl indicates that for the second month in a row the average price per square meter of apartments offered by developers did not increase in Wroclaw (14.7 thousand PLN/sq m), Tri-City (15.9 thousand PLN/sq m), and cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis (approx. 11.2 thousand PLN/sq m). In Lodz (approx. 11.5 thousand PLN/sq m), the series without increases has already lasted four months, and five months – in Warsaw (17.7 thousand PLN/sq m) and in Krakow (16.6 thousand PLN/sq m). Only in Poznan (13.4 thousand PLN/sq m) did the average increase by 1% in January after four months of stabilization.
Despite the fact that the investment activity of developers is no longer as high as in the first half of last year, they still brought more apartments to the market than they sold in January. As a result, the offer of apartments grew in some cities to record levels. In Warsaw at the end of January, over 16.1 thousand apartments were on offer from developer companies, in Krakow – over 9.6 thousand, Wroclaw – close to 9.3 thousand, Tri-City – close to 7.3 thousand, Lodz – over 9.9 thousand, Poznan – over 7.8 thousand, and in the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis – almost 9.6 thousand. Marek Wielgo notes that Lodz has doubled the number of apartments on offer from developers in three years, becoming the second market in Poland after Warsaw.
Significantly, over the last 12 months the choice of apartments for the average borrower has increased. According to BIK data, in the last year + the average apartment buyer borrowed about 420 thousand PLN in the bank. Assuming that a down payment was required, we checked how many apartments with a price under 500 thousand PLN were offered by developers? Data from BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl shows that the largest amount of such apartments is in Lodz and cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis, and the least in Krakow and Warsaw.
It’s worth noting that almost all big cities witnessed a massive drop in the number of apartments and houses priced below 500 thousand PLN in 2023. This was of course the effect of the introduction of the “Safe Loan 2%” by banks. The positive exception was Lodz, where developers brought more apartments onto the market than they sold. Fortunately, not only in this city but also in other metropolises, developers have been rebuilding the offer “for the average pocket”. This is especially visible in Wroclaw, Tri-City, and the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis. In the latter, there are even more such apartments than two years ago.
For those buying new apartments in Warsaw and Krakow, consolation may be in the fact that developers are offering more and more apartments in the popular segment. In both agglomerations, this segment can include apartments with a price below 15 thousand PLN per square meter. In the capital a year ago, buyers had a choice of only about 3.2 thousand such apartments, and currently, there are almost 5 thousand on the market
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/krakow-i-poznan-liderami-styczniowego-ozywienia-na-rynku-nieruchomosci-32925
