March data suggest that Poland’s housing market has entered a new phase. On the one hand, inflation rose by 1.1% month on month, a reading clearly above earlier expectations. On the other, demand for mortgage loans reached a level not seen for years. More than 63,000 people submitted applications, compared with fewer than 37,000 a year earlier. This combination usually points to one thing: buyers are returning to the market, but the macroeconomic environment is becoming more difficult.
The mortgage figures should, however, be interpreted with caution. A large share of new applications may involve refinancing, meaning borrowers are moving their existing loans to other banks, which are now actively competing for clients by lowering margins and offering more attractive terms. According to emerging estimates, refinancing may account for as much as 45% of March mortgage activity. Even after excluding refinancing, however, a rebound in interest in home purchases is visible.
According to an analysis by SonarHome.pl, a platform for property valuation and finding real estate agents, apartment prices began to rise again in the first quarter of 2026, although the pace of growth remained moderate. In March, most major cities recorded only symbolic month-on-month increases, ranging from 0.1% to 0.5% in Łódź, Warsaw, Wrocław and Kraków. Gdańsk and Poznań stood out more clearly, with median prices rising by about 1% month on month. Looking at the full first quarter, prices increased in all major cities, with the strongest growth in Gdańsk, at 3.8%, and Poznań, at 3%. In other locations, growth was more moderate, ranging from 1.6% to 2.3%.
Demand returns: mortgages rise, housing supply falls
Buyers are currently being supported by improved access to financing. The reference rate stands at 3.75%, while fixed-rate mortgage interest rates are currently around 5.5–6%. Earlier interest rate cuts improved access to financing and translated into both higher creditworthiness and lower monthly instalments. For many households, this factor has opened the way to buying a home.
“However, the situation is no longer as straightforward as it might seem,” says Anton Bubiel, housing market expert at SonarHome.pl. “Although the Monetary Policy Council’s decision itself was positive for borrowers, banks simultaneously began raising mortgage interest rates in response to higher market interest rates and growing inflation expectations linked, among other things, to rising energy commodity prices and geopolitical tensions. In practice, this means that the instalment on a new mortgage is now higher than it was in February, while the creditworthiness of some clients has slightly declined.”
Rising wages are also supporting buyer activity. In February, the average wage in the enterprise sector increased by more than 6% year on year, while inflation remained around 2–3%. This means a real increase in purchasing power. The housing market is not driven by interest rates alone. It is equally important whether households feel able to bear mortgage repayments and save for a down payment. At present, these indicators look better than they did a year ago.
Importantly, the structure of demand is becoming increasingly “organic”. Purchases for own housing needs already account for 71% of all transactions, up by 4 percentage points year on year. At the same time, the share of investment purchases is declining. According to NBP data, they accounted for 30% of transactions in 2025, compared with 34% a year earlier and as much as 38% in 2021. This suggests that the market is increasingly being driven by genuine housing needs rather than speculative capital.
Data for the seven largest cities indicate that March sales rose by around 20% month on month. At the same time, the supply of apartments is beginning to shrink. In the first quarter, the number of active listings fell in most large cities, with the sharpest declines in Łódź, Warsaw and Wrocław, where supply dropped by 7–8% quarter on quarter. In Poznań and Kraków, the declines were somewhat milder, at around 5%, while Gdańsk remained an exception, with supply rising by 1%. The time needed to sell an apartment is also shortening, falling to an average of 102 days, and to as little as 97 days in Łódź.
If the combination of strong demand and a shrinking number of available units continues in the coming months, upward pressure on prices will be natural. This does not necessarily mean sharp increases, but it may bring an end to the period of large discounts and broad room for negotiation. Another sign of recovery is the record increase in visits to property listing websites in March. This shows that interest in buying apartments rose clearly with the arrival of spring. However, online traffic alone does not have to automatically translate into the final number of transactions, especially if the macroeconomic situation deteriorates again.
Inflation raises concerns again. Interest rates may halt the market rebound
The current situation does not, however, point to a simple growth scenario. The biggest risk factor remains a further rise in inflation. If the next price readings remain elevated, the Monetary Policy Council may pause further interest rate cuts. Scenarios assuming no rate changes until the end of the year are appearing more often, while in a more pessimistic variant, another rate increase cannot be ruled out. That would quickly cool mortgage market sentiment.
“For this reason, I would not expect a uniform price trend across the country in the coming quarters. The market is entering a phase of divergence. Apartments in good locations, with reasonable floor areas and high product quality, will attract the greatest interest. There, price increases or quick sales without discounts are more likely. Weaker locations, oversupply and lower standards may still mean stagnation or selective price declines,” Bubiel concludes.
The baseline scenario remains moderate: apartment prices in Poland are more likely to rise slightly in nominal terms or remain stable. There are currently no grounds to expect a broad and sharp decline in prices, but it is equally difficult to speak of a new boom. A selective market is more likely: strong where the product can defend itself, and demanding wherever supply still exceeds demand.
