In the first quarter of 2026, developers took their foot off the gas. Few new homes were launched, and those that did reach the market were more expensive, according to experts from RynekPierwotny.pl.
The conflict in the Middle East and the related economic turbulence have so far failed to slow demand for new homes. Buyers, supported by improved mortgage availability, returned to the market with much greater determination than before. At the same time, developers began acting more cautiously. BIG DATA from RynekPierwotny.pl show that the first quarter of 2026 brought a decline in the number of homes on offer in most major metropolitan areas, along with a clear shift toward higher-priced units.
The beginning of 2026 brought a marked revival in new-home sales. In the seven largest metropolitan areas — Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, the Tri-City area, Łódź, Poznań and the cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis — developers found buyers for around 14,800 homes. This was 17% better than in the fourth quarter of 2025 and as much as 19% higher than a year earlier.
Buyers returned to the market
Sales revived virtually everywhere, with one exception. Poznań remains the only major city where stagnation can still be observed, although March data suggest that demand is beginning to recover there as well. The situation looks very different in the other cities, especially in Warsaw, where developers have not enjoyed such a good run in two years. In the first quarter alone, they sold around 4,900 homes there, or 32% more than in the same period last year.
Double-digit year-on-year sales growth was also recorded in Wrocław (+25%), Łódź (+24%), Kraków (+21%) and the Tri-City area (+10%). In the cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis, the number of contracts signed was 6% higher than a year earlier.
Supply is hitting the brakes
The problem is that while sales of new homes accelerated significantly, supply began to shrink. This is a sign that developers are becoming increasingly cautious about launching new projects.
In the first quarter of 2026, developers introduced around 11,800 homes to the market in total — 8% fewer than in the previous quarter and as much as 25% fewer than a year earlier. They cut back new supply most sharply in the places where the market had clearly overheated over the past two years. In Łódź, the number of homes launched for sale was 55% lower than a year earlier; in the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis it was down 48%; and in Poznań, 39%.
“Developers got buyers used to a steadily expanding supply of homes. In 2024, supply significantly exceeded demand, and a similar situation persisted for most of 2025. The result was a record number of available units, which gave buyers negotiating comfort and a sense of security — it was easier to postpone a decision, compare offers and look for bargains. In the following months, however, that comfort gradually began to disappear in most metropolitan areas,” comments Marek Wielgo, an expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
In the first quarter, only Kraków was a city where the number of homes launched for sale exceeded the number sold. In the remaining metropolitan areas, new supply failed to keep pace with rising demand. That is why the housing offer began to shrink — although, of course, it is still supplemented by units that previous buyers withdrew from.
Supply is shrinking… but not everywhere
At the end of March, around 16,800 homes were available on the primary market in Warsaw, 4% fewer than at the end of December last year. Supply fell by 5% in Łódź, to 11,300 units, by 2% in Wrocław, to around 10,000, and by 1% in both Poznań, to 8,100, and the cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis, to 11,000.
Kraków stands out against this backdrop, with supply rising by 7% to 12,300 homes. A slight increase of 1% was also recorded in the Tri-City area, where supply reached 8,700 units, although it is worth noting that March alone already brought a decline in the number of available homes there.
More expensive homes are pushing up average prices
The shrinking supply has another very important dimension. It is mainly the cheapest homes that are disappearing from the market, while they are being replaced primarily by higher-end projects. This mechanism is exactly what is driving the clear acceleration in average price growth at the start of 2026.
In the first quarter, the average price per square metre of a new home in Warsaw rose by as much as 7% — the same increase that had previously taken nearly two years to accumulate. Crucially, this was not the result of widespread price hikes, but rather the launch of several large and very expensive projects that pushed the average up to PLN 19,600 per square metre.
“If Warsaw developers continue bringing very expensive homes onto the market while at the same time restricting the supply of relatively cheaper ones, the average price per square metre could exceed PLN 20,000 as early as this half-year,” forecasts Marek Wielgo.
A similar pattern is visible in Kraków and Poznań, where premium-segment projects entered the market. As a result, the average price per square metre rose there by 2%, to PLN 17,100 and PLN 14,200 respectively. A 1% increase was recorded in Wrocław, to PLN 15,300 per square metre, and in the Tri-City area, to PLN 17,700. Price stability, meanwhile, was maintained in the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis, at around PLN 11,300 per square metre, and in Łódź, at around PLN 11,500, which on a year-on-year basis is now the only major metropolitan market without any increase in the average price per square metre.
The cheapest homes are disappearing the fastest
The best way to assess the real affordability of homes is to look at the cheapest segment, which covers one quarter of the offer with the lowest price per square metre. In most large cities, this is precisely the segment that is shrinking the fastest.
In Warsaw, around 4,200 homes were available below the upper price threshold for this segment, which in December 2025 stood at PLN 14,400 per square metre. By March, that number had fallen to just 3,600, a decline of as much as 16%. In the Tri-City area, the supply of the cheapest homes fell by 14%, and in Poznań by 12%.
In practice, this means that homes affordable for people with limited creditworthiness are disappearing faster than the market is able to replenish them. Kraków and Łódź are the exceptions. In the capital of Małopolska, the number of homes in the cheapest segment increased from 2,700 to 2,900, up 7%, while in Łódź it rose from 2,800 to 2,900, up 6%.
A seller’s market? In Warsaw yes, elsewhere not yet
Do the March and first-quarter data mean that the market is entering a seller’s phase?
“In Warsaw, we can definitely already say that. In the other metropolitan areas, the supply of homes remains large enough that buyers still hold the stronger negotiating position in talks with developers. This is evidenced by the abundance of promotional offers and discounts,” notes Jan Dziekoński, chief economist at RynekPierwotny.pl.
At the same time, however, he points to risk factors. In March, in connection with the conflict in the Persian Gulf, interest rates on mortgages with periodically fixed rates increased. If interest rates were to rise further, this would also mean higher costs for variable-rate mortgages, which could clearly cool buyers’ enthusiasm.
