The Polish housing market in 2025 was defined by a push toward stabilisation and balance after several turbulent years. Developers steadily launched new homes, which helped rebuild supply. As a result, buyers now have a relatively wide choice of apartments at stable prices, without major spikes. The optimistic scenario for 2026 assumes this trend will continue. At the same time, new factors are emerging that may create challenges and push housing costs higher.
In the year now ending, we saw price stabilisation and a gradual return of demand. Several elements contributed to this. First, it became clear in mid-year that the government programme announced to support home purchases would not be introduced. As a result, people who had been waiting for the programme—yet already had financial resources—returned to the market. Meanwhile, developers launched new projects, rebuilding the offer. Second, the interest-rate cut cycle began, which is positive for both buyers and developers. Third, the price transparency law increased market openness and strengthened buyers’ position.
However, buyers hoping for large, broad-based price drops have to face reality—such declines are becoming increasingly unlikely. It is still worth taking a close look at the market’s wide offer, especially at year-end, when developers close their books and roll out numerous promotions. This is when there is a real chance to “hunt” for a good deal.
Demand Becoming More Diverse
Buyers from the mid-price segment are returning, which should have a stabilising effect on demand. These are largely mortgage-financed purchasers. This is supported by National Bank of Poland (NBP) data showing that the share of buyers’ own funds used to purchase homes had already been falling since mid-2024. The number of mortgage applications recorded by BIK has also been increasing.
In sales terms, Warsaw is performing best among all markets. Demand has already picked up there, and the market is closest to equilibrium. Supply is gradually expanding, prices—despite fluctuations in indicators linked to the price transparency law—appear to be stabilising, and demand increased in the final months of the year. At the same time, there is no clear potential for sudden shifts: no strong triggers that would force buyers to rush into property as a safe haven or seize a one-off opportunity. Gdańsk is also close to balance. In other large cities, the market remains closer to a supply advantage over demand—although only Łódź and Katowice show a significant oversupply.
Challenges for Developers
In the coming months, housing developers will have to face challenges that may affect both supply and property prices. One of these is the planning reform being implemented by municipalities, including the introduction of so-called general plans. Municipalities have time to adopt general plans by 30 June 2026, although for most this deadline is unrealistic. It is highly likely the deadline will be extended by another two months. If general plans are not adopted on time and no additional legal solutions are introduced, obtaining building permits may become significantly more difficult. This uncertainty concerns the entire pipeline of new supply. Even so, we expect at most a potential slowdown in the pace of new projects, rather than a complete halt.
Another factor is the “shelter law,” which could raise property prices by as much as several hundred złoty per square metre. In addition, the market will be influenced by rising construction costs—materials, energy and labour—as well as new technical requirements covering, among other things, safety, acoustic comfort and building equipment standards.
Moderate Optimism
Looking ahead to 2026, cautious optimism is warranted. Demand will likely hold at current levels or rise slightly, especially in the capital. Supply may prove more challenging due to new regulations and the planning reform. Prices are unlikely to fall—particularly in popular locations. The optimistic scenario points to stabilisation or a modest increase.
For buyers, this is a good moment to search for a home within a broad selection, especially by taking advantage of year-end promotions. For developers, the months ahead will bring a demanding mix of new requirements and regulatory uncertainty.
Source: CEO.com.pl
