After four years of dynamic shifts, 2025 brought long-awaited stability to the housing market. The key drivers were interest rate cuts and a record-high supply of new homes, exceeding 61,000 units across Poland’s seven largest cities. Under these conditions, sales increased markedly, while prices remained relatively stable (+4.5% y/y). However, growing disparities between cities show that local factors—including demographics and migration—will increasingly shape the market. Even so, forecasts for 2026 remain optimistic for both buyers and developers.
Four Years That Transformed the Housing Market
The years 2020–2024 were a period of exceptional volatility in the Polish residential market. Within a short time, several groundbreaking developments left a lasting mark on both developers and homebuyers.
In 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic and amid record-low interest rates (0.10%), demand for larger apartments and single-family homes surged. Cheap credit fueled the market. But in 2022 the situation changed dramatically: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine temporarily halted purchase decisions, while inflation and consecutive rate hikes significantly reduced buyers’ creditworthiness, leading to a pronounced market slowdown.
In mid-2023, a strong rebound occurred thanks to the “2% Safe Mortgage” program, which sharply increased demand. In major cities, housing supply dropped by as much as 40% y/y, and prices rose by more than 20% in some locations. In 2024, after the program ended and no successor was introduced, the market again entered a phase of waiting. Developers focused on rebuilding supply.
According to data from the National Bank of Poland, over these four years the average transaction price of apartments rose from PLN 8,600 per sq m to nearly PLN 14,000 per sq m. Meanwhile, Otodom data shows that in the seven main metropolitan areas (Warsaw, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Wrocław, Tri-City and Katowice), the number of completed units fell from 63,800 to 48,300.
So what did 2025 look like in this context?
“After a period of intense and often unpredictable shifts, 2025 brought the expected stabilization. Both buyers and developers are now operating in more predictable and favorable market conditions. Although the year was not free from factors influencing the housing sector, their nature and scale were nowhere near as turbulent as in 2020–2024,” says Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Head of Market Research at Otodom.
Interest Rate Cuts and the Stabilizing Power of Supply
The main boost for the housing sector in 2025 came from the first interest rate cuts in 19 months. The 50-basis-point reduction in May and the 25-basis-point cut in July surprised the market and spurred buyer activity during a period that usually sees weaker sales. This time, summer sales surged: July saw a 59% increase y/y, and August rose by 45% y/y. Subsequent cuts (in September, October and November) triggered a more muted response.
Importantly, the rise in buyer activity coincided with a record-high supply of new units. From January to November 2025, developers sold 36,200 units across the seven main markets, while launching 39,800 new units for sale. As a result, by the end of November, buyers could choose from 61,300 available developer-owned units in major cities—and more than 67,800 including reserved units.
“High availability of supply acted as a stabilizing force in 2025—it was the market’s anchor. Buyers had plenty to choose from, which allowed sales to rise without triggering sharp price increases. This is one of this year’s paradoxes: the market was active yet stable,” comments Kuniewicz.
This high supply volume was also shaped by the introduction of the new price-transparency law. The regulation forced developers to include luxury apartments in publicly available listings, which became a turning point for the premium segment, disrupting previous pricing strategies and the long-standing off-market sales model.
“The persistently high supply in 2025 made developers more cautious when planning new projects. This is clearly visible in Statistics Poland (GUS) data—not only has the number of issued building permits decreased, but the share of permits not immediately converted into construction starts has also increased. This indicates greater selectiveness in investment decisions,” adds Kuniewicz.
The high supply also contributed to the slowdown in price growth: in the primary market, annual price dynamics reached 4.5%.
Diverging Paths Among Cities
While aggregate data suggests stabilization, a closer look at individual markets reveals growing disparities between major cities, reflected in the “sell-out period” for available units. In November, this period shortened across all monitored locations, but the rate and scale of change differed.
A balance between supply and demand is observed in Poznań, Wrocław and the Tri-City. Meanwhile, Warsaw remains a seller’s market for the second consecutive month, with supply unable to keep up with demand.
These differences—both among the largest cities and between regions nationwide—are likely to widen further, influenced by demographic patterns and domestic migration trends.
“In the coming years, immigration regions—primarily large cities and their surrounding municipalities—will benefit. Nearly all other regions can expect depopulation. We anticipate growing importance of financially stable middle-aged households who will move from small apartments to houses in more affordable neighborhoods, suburban areas, or even—thanks to remote work—to other parts of the country that offer better prices, environment and transport accessibility,” says demographic expert Mateusz Łakomy.
An Optimistic Outlook
What will 2026 bring for the housing market? Experts point to generally optimistic scenarios. The macroeconomic environment is now more supportive of purchasing decisions than previously assumed.
The key factor is the strong condition of the Polish economy. GDP readings exceed forecasts, inflation is lower than expected and remains within the inflation target. All this creates a positive economic climate, suggesting that 2026 may be a favorable year for potential homebuyers.
However, in the longer term, several constraints may emerge. The peak of public investment—expected in 2026—may significantly increase demand for construction services, driving up contractor prices. This could translate into upward pressure on housing prices, even if overall inflation remains stable.
Experts also highlight the growing importance of energy efficiency—still often overlooked during the homebuying process—when assessing future housing costs.
“Today, the energy efficiency of buildings is undervalued. When buying a home with a mortgage, people focus on the installment amount—whether it will be PLN 300–500 higher or lower each month. Meanwhile, energy efficiency can generate a similar impact on the household budget. This matters even more when buying a house, where monthly heating and hot-water costs can differ by as much as PLN 500–1,000,” explains Bartłomiej Derski of WysokieNapiecie.pl.
