Poland’s housing market is undergoing a significant transformation. First, a sweeping regulatory shift regarding public access to housing prices is underway — one of the most impactful in years. This will not only reshape the relationship between buyers and sellers but also affect the daily operations of real estate developers. Second, despite historically high yet stable prices, demand has weakened compared to a year ago. And yet, housing supply is growing rapidly. Does this mean that home sales in 2025 could exceed those of 2024?
27% of Developers Facing Major Adjustments
The sector is in a state of preparation and uncertainty as it awaits the enforcement of a legal amendment requiring developers to maintain their own websites and publish detailed pricing information. This includes price per square meter, costs of additional rooms (if not included in the base price), pricing changes with dates, and promotion policies — from the start to the end of a sale. This data must also be reported to the public portal dane.gov.pl.
For developers active in large-scale urban apartment projects, publishing prices online is already standard practice. However, the situation differs in suburban areas and commuter belts (the so-called “donut zones”) where house-building dominates. Data from Otodom shows that out of 1,700 active developers across Poland’s 20 main urban markets, around 470 (27%) focus on single-family home construction in large metropolitan areas. These companies often relied on local listings and classifieds rather than dedicated websites, and thus may face the steepest challenge in adapting to the new requirements.
Another significant hurdle is the format and method of price reporting, both on developers’ websites and to dane.gov.pl. It remains unclear, for example, whether developers must create separate pages for each concurrent project, or how pricing data must be formatted for government submission. Although the Polish Association of Developers (PZFD) is working on a unified solution, specific guidelines are still pending. In the meantime, companies are strongly encouraged to register with the government system early to avoid last-minute bottlenecks and technical issues.
A separate source of confusion relates to the timeline. Some media outlets have reported that developers must begin publishing prices by July 11, but this is misleading. In reality, once the law is signed by the President, there is a one-month vacatio legis, followed by two months for compliance — meaning the new rules will effectively apply starting in September 2025.
Can 2025 Sales Surpass 2024?
Forecasting real estate market trends is inherently difficult, not only because it involves future projections, but also because the true drivers of demand and supply shifts are often unclear. Sales volume isn’t always a reliable metric — a transaction is only considered complete after title transfer, and buyers’ motivations are not always transparent. This unpredictability is why scenario modeling is favored over linear forecasting.
In recent years, housing dynamics in Poland’s major cities have been heavily influenced by external macroeconomic and social factors, leading to sharp fluctuations in both supply and demand — not just year-over-year but even quarter-to-quarter.
Market Fluctuations in Numbers (2020–2024)
Home Sales (7 major markets: Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Poznań, Łódź, Tricity, Katowice):
- 2020: 44,800
- 2021: 59,600 (+33%)
- 2022: 36,100 (–39%)
- 2023: 51,100 (+42%)
- 2024: 36,800 (–28%)
New Supply (units released to market):
- 2020: 43,800
- 2021: 52,300 (+19%)
- 2022: 43,300 (–17%)
- 2023: 41,000 (–5%)
- 2024: 53,300 (+30%)
Available Inventory at Year-End:
- 2019: 36,500
- 2020: 43,100
- 2021: 36,100
- 2022: 46,000
- 2023: 34,800
- 2024: 55,300
Despite the swings in sales and supply, average listing prices have consistently increased.
- End of 2019: PLN 513,400 (PLN 8,950/m²)
- End of 2024: PLN 803,500 (PLN 14,768/m²)
That’s a 57% rise in total price and a 65% increase per square meter in just five years.
What to Expect in H2 2025?
Data from Otodom Analytics reveals that in the first five months of 2025, developers launched 20,900 new units, with 15,300 units sold. This raised total inventory to 62,000 units by the end of May. If monthly sales from June to December match the pace of late 2024, the total number of units sold in 2025 will reach 36,500 — roughly equal to 2024.
This is the baseline scenario. However, a recent interest rate cut in May sparked a noticeable uptick in demand, opening the door for a more optimistic scenario — especially if further rate cuts follow. Should this occur, and if high supply levels are met with aggressive discounting, sales could rise to 45,000 units for the year. That would mean 28% higher H2 sales compared to H1, and a 22% year-over-year increase.
Both scenarios are currently plausible, with a 35% probability assigned to each by analysts. As of now, the more conservative scenario (lower sales) appears slightly more likely. Much will depend on the market data for June.
The least likely scenario — though worth mentioning — is a collapse in sales during H2 2025 and into 2026. For this to happen, some unexpected shock would need to occur, one of a magnitude comparable to the pandemic, inflation spike, or outbreak of war in Ukraine — events that are difficult to anticipate.
Author: Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Head of Research, Otodom
Source: CEO.com.pl – What Lies Ahead for Poland’s Housing Market in H2 2025
