The latest data from Statistics Poland (GUS) on the scale of residential construction leave little room for optimism. The year ahead is shaping up to be rather average at best. The two key pillars of the market—developers and households—have clearly reduced their activity, starting construction in February on 15% fewer homes than a year earlier. Looking at cumulative data for January and February, the situation appears even more serious: a year-on-year decline of 22% and a result 14% below the average of the past five years. Against this market slowdown, however, an interesting paradox emerges—a revival in the segment of social and rental housing. Although still small in scale, it deserves particular attention in the context of the government’s new housing strategy. The situation is commented on by Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Head of Research at Otodom.
According to GUS data, the number of homes and apartments completed in Poland in February was comparable both to January’s results and to February 2025. Altogether, all groups of investors delivered 14,600 units, which is 0.3% fewer than in January but 0.9% more than a year earlier. Within this total, developers completed 8,500 units, representing a 1.3% month-on-month decline and a 1.4% drop year-on-year. Although these differences are relatively small, it is worth noting that the number of homes completed in the first two months of 2026 is the lowest in five years, both overall and within the developer segment (for sale or rent).
Developers accounted for 58% of all residential units completed in February. With developers recording slightly weaker results compared to January and individual investors performing somewhat better, the share of households increased from 39% to 40%. Compared to February 2024, households (referred to by GUS as individual investors) completed 6% more homes, and their performance was 3% better than in the previous month.
The slight month-on-month decline in developer completions is also reflected in cumulative year-to-date data. In the January–February period, developers delivered 17,100 units, nearly 7% fewer than a year earlier.
At the same time, individual investors completed 11,600 units in the first two months of the year, representing a 3.5% increase compared to the same period in 2025. It is likely that overall completion figures will remain weaker on a year-on-year basis for the next few months.
Efforts by various investor groups to obtain building permits in February produced significantly better results than in January. Compared to 2025, the figures are also higher by more than a dozen percent. The total number of permits issued in February reached 22,700, including 15,700 for developers and 6,500 for individual investors. This means that the number of permits was 29% higher than in January and more than 12% higher year-on-year. Unlike January, developers—not households—showed stronger activity in this category compared to the previous year.
Cumulatively, the number of residential units for which permits were issued in January and February was slightly higher than a year earlier.
In the first two months of 2026, developers obtained permits for a total of 27,400 units (up 1% year-on-year), while individual investors secured permits for 12,300 units (up 10.6% year-on-year).
However, GUS statistics on construction starts across Poland point to a clear slowdown, despite a month-on-month increase compared to January. The number of housing starts by all investor groups declined by nearly 15% year-on-year, even taking into account the anomaly recorded by GUS last year. Typically, February sees more construction starts than January, but in 2025 the opposite was true—February results were weaker than those in January.
In February 2026, all investor groups began construction on 14,100 residential units. Over the past five years, fewer construction starts were recorded only in the highly atypical year of 2023. The cumulative number of housing starts in the first two months of the year totaled just 26,400 units—22% fewer than a year earlier and 14% below the five-year average.
Such a significant decline reflects clearly reduced activity among both developers and households.
Although developers started construction on 8.5% more units in February than in January, their activity fell by as much as 21% compared to February last year.
Cumulative results for developers in this category reveal significant variation across years. While 2026 figures are about 10% below the five-year average, they remain noticeably higher than those recorded in 2023 and are comparable to 2022 levels.
Current GUS data on construction starts should also be interpreted in the context of building permits. Since the beginning of the year, the gap between the number of permits issued and the number of construction starts has reached as much as 13,900 units. This means that one in three permits has not yet translated into actual construction activity. More than 60% (8,900 units) of this gap stems from permits obtained by developers, which may reflect emerging risks in the housing market environment—particularly the potential increase in construction costs driven by rising energy prices.
The fact that developers are clearly holding back on launching new projects is closely linked to growing uncertainty. This is confirmed by last year’s data, when the share of postponed permits in the first two months of 2025 amounted to just 11%.
