The latest data from Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) regarding residential construction for May and the first five months of the year confirm a troubling continuation of the medium-term downward trend in key housing statistics.
As noted by experts from RynekPierwotny.pl, GUS figures once again reflect a clear decline in residential construction activity. Despite a slight rebound in building permits, developer investment remains muted—suggesting ongoing uncertainty about the near-term prospects for new home sales.
Construction Starts Declining
In May 2025, construction began on 19,000 new housing units, a figure nearly 4% lower than the same month last year and 5% down compared to April. Developer activity remains especially weak, with just over 11,000 units started—one of the lowest monthly results since mid-2023.
Since the beginning of the year, close to 95,000 housing units have broken ground in Poland, representing a 6% year-over-year decline. Of these, 59,500 units were initiated by developers—a 10% drop from the same period in 2024. These figures paint a clear picture of a cooling investment climate in the primary housing market.
Building Permits: A Mixed Picture
While the data on new building permits or project submissions show a minor recovery, the broader trend remains negative. In May, GUS recorded 20,700 administrative decisions related to new housing projects, which marked a 9% increase from April, but still reflected a 16% year-over-year decline.
From January to May, investors obtained just under 103,000 permits, down 14% from the same period last year. Developers received 12,700 permits in May and almost 65,000 since the start of the year. This indicates a 19% month-over-month increase, but also a dramatic year-over-year plunge of 26% in May and 24% year-to-date—among the lowest permit levels in recent history.
Completions Hit Multi-Year Lows
The most concerning indicator comes from the number of completed housing units. In May, just under 15,000 homes were completed—9% fewer than in April and 2% down compared to May 2024. From January through May, 76,700 homes were handed over for use—a 3% year-over-year drop.
These figures confirm a broadly pessimistic outlook for Poland’s residential construction sector. May’s completion numbers mark a multi-year low, potentially reflecting investment delays or slower finalization of projects.
“Despite a modest rebound in developer permits—often a proxy for investor confidence—it’s hard to ignore the weakening sentiment in the housing market. Declines in project starts, permits, and completions all point to a cautious stance among developers, likely driven by economic uncertainty, rising construction costs, and interest rate expectations,” says Jarosław Jędrzyński, an analyst at RynekPierwotny.pl.
Private Construction More Resilient
Interestingly, individual housing construction—mainly by private investors—is showing greater resilience. While GUS data still shows a decline in this segment, the rate of decrease is notably smaller than for developer-led projects.
A Market in Slow Motion
Overall, Poland’s residential construction market is clearly losing momentum. May saw significant statistical declines in both initiated and completed units, even as the number of projects in progress continues to rise. This suggests developers are acting more cautiously and slowly than a year ago.
The coming months will be key in determining whether this slowdown stabilizes—particularly in response to potential interest rate cuts or material cost stabilization.
Author: Jarosław Jędrzyński, expert at RynekPierwotny.pl
Source: ceo.com.pl
