According to preliminary estimates from the Central Statistical Office (GUS), Poland’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.9% in real terms in 2024 compared to the previous year. This result slightly surpasses earlier forecasts, which predicted economic growth at 2.8%. Ultimately, the Polish economy expanded at a faster pace than in 2023, making it a pleasant surprise.
Key Drivers of Growth
While detailed data on the GDP growth structure is not yet available, several key factors contributed to this performance.
Consumption – A Stable Driving Force
Private consumption remained the primary driver of growth, increasing by 3.1% year-on-year. Despite declining inflation and double-digit wage growth, the scale of consumption growth was not spectacular. This can be attributed to cautious consumer behavior, shaped by prior inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the war in Ukraine, which encouraged a more pragmatic approach to spending.
Industry Performs Better Than Expected
At the start of 2024, the industrial sector was seen as a potential drag on economic growth. However, it ultimately performed better than anticipated, posting a 1.0% year-on-year increase. This underscores the resilience of Poland’s manufacturing sector, particularly in the face of challenging international conditions and limited external demand.
Construction and Investment – The Biggest Disappointments
The construction sector fell short of expectations, as evidenced by negative figures in construction and assembly production throughout much of the year. This resulted in weak overall performance for this segment of the economy.
After an impressive 12.6% growth in 2023, investment activity slowed significantly in 2024, growing by only 1.3% year-on-year. Funds from the National Recovery Plan (KPO) have not yet yielded their anticipated results, leaving the investment sector unable to surpass the high growth base from the previous year.
A Solid Year for the Polish Economy
Despite weaker performance in investment and construction, 2024 proved to be a successful year for the Polish economy, particularly compared to other European Union countries. It was a year marked by relative price and legal stability, which improved the business environment.
Although detailed data on GDP structure will be released in the coming months, preliminary estimates indicate that the economy grew at a stable pace. This sets a promising foundation for more optimistic forecasts in the coming years.
Source: https://managerplus.pl/wzrost-pkb-w-polsce-w-2024-r-lepszy-od-prognoz-gospodarka-urosla-o-29-88526
