Poland’s economy grew by 3.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, according to a preliminary estimate from Statistics Poland. The statistical office revised its earlier flash estimate up by 0.1 percentage point. More important than the headline figure, however, was the structure of growth: investment increased by as much as 8.4% year on year, while household consumption slowed to 2.8%.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP increased by 1.0% compared with the previous quarter and by 3.8% compared with the second quarter of 2025. Poland’s overall economic growth therefore remains solid, but its main drivers are changing. Investment and foreign trade are playing a larger role, while consumption is no longer accelerating.
Key figures for Q2 2026
- GDP: +3.9% year on year
- Seasonally adjusted GDP: +1.0% quarter on quarter and +3.8% year on year
- Domestic demand: +3.5%
- Household consumption: +2.8%
- Gross fixed capital formation: +8.4%
- Gross capital formation: +9.3%
- Net exports’ contribution to GDP growth: +0.5 percentage point
Statistics Poland raises GDP growth estimate to 3.9%
The earlier flash estimate showed Poland’s economy expanding by 3.8% year on year. After incorporating more complete data, Statistics Poland revised growth to 3.9%.
For comparison, Polish GDP grew by 3.3% year on year in the second quarter of 2025.
Quarter-on-quarter data also point to stronger momentum. Seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.0% compared with the first three months of the year. In Q1 2026, quarterly growth stood at 0.6%.
Investment accelerates from 2.4% to 8.4%
Investment was the strongest element of the new GDP data. Gross fixed capital formation increased by 8.4% year on year in the second quarter, compared with just 2.4% in the first quarter.
Gross capital formation grew even faster, rising by 9.3% year on year, compared with 2.7% three months earlier.
The investment rate, measured as gross fixed capital formation as a share of GDP at current prices, increased to 16.1%, up from 15.1% a year earlier.
The level is still not particularly high relative to the long-term investment needs of the Polish economy, but the direction of change is significantly more favourable than in previous quarters.
| Component | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| GDP | +3.5% | +3.9% |
| Domestic demand | +3.7% | +3.5% |
| Total consumption | +3.9% | +2.5% |
| Household consumption | +3.3% | +2.8% |
| Public consumption | +6.0% | +1.7% |
| Gross fixed capital formation | +2.4% | +8.4% |
| Gross capital formation | +2.7% | +9.3% |
Source: Statistics Poland.
The structure of growth is changing
The differences between the main GDP components became particularly visible in the second quarter.
| Component | Annual growth |
|---|---|
| GDP | 3.9% |
| Household consumption | 2.8% |
| Public consumption | 1.7% |
| Investment | 8.4% |
Investment is now expanding roughly three times as fast as household consumption, marking a clear shift in the composition of Poland’s economic growth.
Household consumption slows
Unlike investment, consumption provided no positive surprise.
Household spending increased by 2.8% year on year, down from 3.3% in the first quarter. Total consumption rose by 2.5%, while public consumption increased by just 1.7%.
mBank economists noted that the public consumption figure was the weakest since the beginning of 2023. At the same time, private consumption is growing more slowly than GDP as a whole.
This means that the Polish economy relied less heavily on consumer spending in the second quarter than it had in previous periods.
What actually contributed to GDP growth?
Domestic demand contributed 3.4 percentage points to annual GDP growth.
Consumption added 2.0 percentage points, including 1.6 percentage points from household consumption and 0.4 percentage point from public consumption.
The role of investment increased significantly. Investment demand contributed 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth, compared with only 0.3 percentage point in the first quarter.
Gross capital formation as a whole contributed 1.4 percentage points.
| Component | Contribution to GDP growth |
|---|---|
| Domestic demand | +3.4 pp |
| Total consumption | +2.0 pp |
| Household consumption | +1.6 pp |
| Public consumption | +0.4 pp |
| Investment demand | +1.3 pp |
| Net exports | +0.5 pp |
Net exports support growth again
Foreign trade was the second positive element of the data.
Net exports contributed 0.5 percentage point to economic growth, compared with a neutral contribution in the first quarter.
According to mBank economists, this was the strongest positive contribution from net exports since the end of 2023.
Both exports and imports recorded double-digit growth. Exports increased by 10.8% year on year, while imports rose by 10.4%.
A strong increase in imports should not automatically be interpreted as a negative signal. With investment accelerating sharply, higher imports may partly reflect purchases of machinery, equipment, components and other goods used by Polish companies.
Industry grows faster than the overall economy
Gross value added data also reveal significant differences between individual sectors.
Across the economy, gross value added increased by 3.6% year on year in the second quarter. Industry recorded the strongest increase, at 6.5%.
Trade and repair services grew by 4.0%, as did transportation and storage. Construction increased by 3.0%.
Financial and insurance activities performed considerably worse, with Statistics Poland reporting a 3.0% year-on-year decline in gross value added.
| Sector | Change in gross value added |
|---|---|
| Industry | +6.5% |
| Trade and repair | +4.0% |
| Transportation and storage | +4.0% |
| Construction | +3.0% |
| Financial and insurance activities | -3.0% |
mBank expects investment growth to remain above 8%
mBank economists expect the third quarter to show a broadly similar economic picture.
Investment growth is expected to remain above 8%, while private consumption growth is likely to stabilise in a range of approximately 2.5% to 3%.
“We continue to expect GDP to grow by 3.7% in 2026, although after a stronger-than-expected second quarter the risks are tilted to the upside,” mBank economists said.
The bank’s 3.7% forecast for full-year 2026 therefore remains unchanged, although the stronger Q2 result increases the possibility of an upward revision.
Much will depend on whether the current investment acceleration continues during the second half of the year.
Poland’s growth structure looks healthier
GDP growth of 3.9% is a solid result in itself, but the changing balance between the main components of growth is arguably more important.
Investment is now growing around three times faster than household consumption, while its contribution to GDP growth has increased sharply.
From the perspective of the coming quarters, this is a more favourable structure than growth driven almost exclusively by household spending. Higher corporate investment can increase production capacity, productivity and the competitiveness of the economy.
At the same time, weaker consumption shows that economic momentum is not evenly distributed across all areas.
If investment maintains its current pace and net exports continue to make a positive contribution, Poland’s full-year GDP growth in 2026 could exceed current forecasts.
The main risks include a further slowdown in household consumption and renewed inflationary pressure, which could reduce the scope for additional interest-rate cuts.
Sources: Statistics Poland, Preliminary estimate of gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2026; commentary by mBank economists.
