According to the latest data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS), Poland’s foreign trade turnover between January and August 2025 amounted to PLN 1,001.6 billion in exports and PLN 1,023.1 billion in imports, resulting in a negative balance of PLN 21.4 billion. Despite losing its previous trade surplus, the figures indicate that the Polish economy remains deeply embedded in global supply chains and maintains a high level of export activity.
Stable exports, rising imports
GUS data show that exports declined by 0.3% year-on-year, while imports grew by 2.7%. According to Mariusz Zielonka, chief economist at Konfederacja Lewiatan, this divergence reflects the recovery of domestic demand and rising costs of raw materials and components on global markets.
“We are buying more expensive goods, especially raw materials and semi-finished products, which increases the nominal value of imports. At the same time, a stronger zloty reduces the value of exports when calculated in Polish currency, even though in euro or dollar terms export growth remains higher,” explains Zielonka.
The strength of the Polish zloty in 2025, while beneficial for importers, is reducing the price competitiveness of Polish exporters, particularly in relation to partners from Germany and France.
Europe remains the key trade partner
The geographic structure of Poland’s foreign trade remains stable. Over 74% of exports go to European Union countries, including 59% to the eurozone. Germany continues to be Poland’s largest export destination, especially for automotive, machinery, and household appliance sectors.
Imports from developing countries, particularly in Asia, are growing faster than exports to these regions, reflecting a global trend of Europe’s increasing dependence on Asian suppliers of components, including electronics, batteries, and IT equipment.
Strong industrial sectors sustain exports
Despite slower growth, Poland’s exports remain strong thanks to industries with stable positions in EU markets, primarily:
- Automotive – supported by investments in electromobility,
- Household appliances and consumer electronics,
- Machinery and industrial components.
Economists note that these sectors are helping to shield the trade balance from a larger deficit. Poland remains an important link in Europe’s industrial supply chain, particularly for German manufacturing.
Stronger zloty – both a benefit and a risk
Export and import values expressed in foreign currencies are higher than in zloty terms, underscoring the strong impact of the exchange rate. The appreciation of the zloty in 2025 has made imports more profitable but reduced export revenues when converted to the domestic currency.
“A strong zloty boosts the attractiveness of foreign purchases but lowers export profitability, which could negatively affect the trade balance over time,” notes Zielonka.
Need for diversification and higher value-added exports
Economists at Konfederacja Lewiatan emphasize that after the record years of 2021–2023, Polish exports have entered a phase of stabilization. However, the economy remains highly dependent on the eurozone’s performance, particularly that of Germany. In light of the economic slowdown among Poland’s key trading partners, diversifying export markets and developing high value-added products—such as technologically advanced industrial goods, medical devices, and digital services—are becoming increasingly urgent.
“Maintaining competitiveness requires investment in innovation, automation, and reducing the carbon footprint of production, as these factors will determine Poland’s position in the EU market,” concludes Zielonka.
Outlook: Cautious optimism
Overall, Poland’s trade performance in 2025 presents a picture of moderate optimism. The country continues to maintain strong export levels, but rising imports and a firm zloty are eroding the trade surplus. In the coming months, the key challenge will be to maintain a balance between robust domestic demand and export competitiveness—especially amid a slowing European economy and ongoing transformations in global supply chains.
