According to Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS), the country’s GDP in the first quarter of 2025 grew by 3.2% year-on-year in unadjusted terms, and by 3.7% in seasonally adjusted terms (at constant 2020 prices). This is a remarkably strong result—one of the highest growth rates in Europe.
Strong Full-Year Outlook for 2025
As outlined in the Ministry of Finance’s Long-Term Macroeconomic Assumptions for 2025–2029, this positive momentum is expected to extend throughout the entire year.
In 2025, domestic demand will be the main driver of economic growth. This is primarily due to:
- Rising private consumption, supported by wage growth in the public sector
- A positive net export balance
Additionally, public consumption will be boosted by increased spending on healthcare, contributing further to GDP growth.
Slower but Stable Growth Expected Post-2025
According to the Ministry’s projections, private consumption and net exports will remain key growth engines in 2026, sustaining GDP expansion at around 3.5%. However, from 2027 onward, the pace of economic growth is expected to gradually slow:
- 3.0% in 2027
- 2.7% in 2028
- 2.6% in 2029
These figures do not account for a likely long-term slowdown after 2030, when Poland’s GDP growth may decline to around 1.5% annually. This would be a result of narrowing income and technological gaps between Poland and Western European countries such as Germany, the UK, France, and Italy.
Investment Surge on the Horizon
In the coming years, Poland is expected to see a significant rise in the investment rate, driven by:
- Implementation of projects under the National Recovery Plan (KPO)
- Utilization of EU funds from the 2021–2027 financial perspective
- Execution of major public and private investment projects, including:
- Polish Nuclear Power Plant
- Offshore wind farms
- Defense industry modernization
- Energy grid upgrades
- The Central Communication Port (CPK)
Trade Balance: Strong Imports in 2025–2026
For 2025 and 2026, the Ministry expects import growth to outpace exports, fueled by:
- High volumes of military equipment deliveries
- Robust domestic demand
Author: Stanisław Gomułka, Chief Economist, Business Centre Club
Source: ceo.com.pl
