The Central Statistical Office (GUS) has confirmed that Poland’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.2% year-on-year in real terms during the first quarter of 2025. This represents a clear acceleration compared to the same period in 2024, when growth stood at 2.2%.
Commenting on the latest data, Mariusz Zielonka, Chief Economist at the Lewiatan Confederation, emphasized that the growth rate aligned with previous estimates and highlighted several factors behind the strong performance. According to him, a significant driver was the accumulation of inventories by companies in anticipation of a looming trade war, which notably boosted GDP dynamics.
“The specter of a trade war pushed companies to stockpile, and those inventories pulled GDP upwards,” Zielonka noted.
He also pointed to surprisingly strong investments, which grew by 6.3% year-on-year in Q1. This was a positive sign, especially considering earlier, more cautious figures from the construction sector and the traditionally low investment appetite among private firms.
“Such a substantial increase in investments allows us to look to the near future with even greater hope,” Zielonka added.
Private consumption also performed well, growing by 2.5% year-on-year. Although this fell short of full expectations, Zielonka remarked that the rising household propensity to save could be considered a healthy indicator for the economy.
Among factors restraining growth remains a negative trade balance. Poland has been importing more than it exports for nearly a year, which dampens GDP levels. However, the Lewiatan economist pointed out that the impact of this imbalance is gradually diminishing as import volumes contract.
Looking ahead, Zielonka expressed cautious optimism. He believes that upcoming quarters could continue to deliver positive data.
“Both industry and consumption performed quite well. Investments—primarily from the public sector—will continue to rise,” he said. He also added that if no major disruptions occur in the second half of the year, a 4% GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains achievable.
Source: ceo.com.pl
