The beginning of 2026 marks a period of dynamic growth and optimistic prospects for the Polish economy. According to Coface forecasts, the current business cycle is expected to reach its peak this year. Experts estimate that GDP will grow by 3.8% year-on-year, up from 3.6% in 2025. However, despite the favorable outlook, the expansion remains exposed to significant risks—both external and domestic. Which factors will drive Poland’s economic growth in 2026, and which are already raising justified concerns?
The current macroeconomic landscape is shaped by several key factors that will influence economic conditions to varying degrees throughout the year. Among the most important are the pace of investment and domestic demand, the situation among Poland’s main trading partners, and financing conditions in the economy. In the background, fiscal and geopolitical risks remain present. Below are Coface’s economic forecasts for Poland in 2026.
Investment and Domestic Demand as the Main Pillars of Growth
As in the third quarter of 2025, investment will remain the primary driver of economic growth. In 2026, investment activity will be supported by the approaching deadline for the use of funds from the National Recovery Plan (KPO), which encourages the accumulation of investment projects, as well as by the increasing absorption of cohesion policy funds. In addition, the growing volume of corporate lending indicates that interest rate cuts are creating more favorable financing conditions for private-sector investment.
Private consumption will also remain an important component of Poland’s economic growth. Although the pace of real growth in consumption is currently losing momentum, the earlier accumulation of household savings allows for a reduction in the savings rate, which should continue to support consumer spending.
Improving Conditions Among Trading Partners and a Recovery in Corporate Profitability
Economic conditions among Poland’s main trading partners are also expected to improve gradually. According to Coface forecasts, the German economy should respond more clearly in 2026 to the fiscal stimulus package already implemented, boosting economic activity and raising GDP growth to 1.0% (from 0.2% in 2025). Economic conditions in Western Europe are also expected to benefit from higher defense spending, lower energy prices, and cyclical economic recovery.
Coface experts note that net exports may continue to weigh on GDP growth due to faster import growth. This will be driven by highly import-intensive defense spending, strong domestic demand, and increased imports from China.
“The year 2026 may bring a gradual improvement in the corporate sector. Cost pressures that previously led to margin compression are steadily easing. In particular, wage growth in 2026 is expected to converge toward productivity growth, while energy prices are likely to decline. As a result, corporate profits and profitability should continue the reversal of the trend observed in 2025,”
says Dr. Mateusz Dadej, Chief Economist at Coface for Poland and Central and Eastern Europe.
Key Risk Factors Threatening Poland’s Economic Growth
Despite these optimistic growth prospects, Poland’s economy faces significant risks. The most important of these is fiscal in nature and relates to the country’s creditworthiness. Last year’s downgrade of the outlook by two of the three major rating agencies could translate into an actual rating downgrade if the trajectory of the public finance deficit does not improve.
“Stabilizing public finances and reducing the deficit will be a particularly major challenge in the context of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2027 and the ongoing conflict between the President of Poland and the government over tax-increasing legislation. As a result, Poland may face its first rating downgrade in a decade, which could weaken investor confidence in Polish assets,”
emphasizes Dr. Mateusz Dadej.
Coface also points out that, beyond domestic factors, geopolitical risks will remain a burden on both the global and Polish economies in 2026.
“The foreign policy of U.S. President Donald Trump has become increasingly unilateral and is exerting growing pressure on the European Union,” explains Dr. Dadej. “Previous verbal disputes—such as those concerning Greenland, Big Tech regulation, or differing approaches to the war in Ukraine—could once again escalate into economic conflict. The United States may also leverage its position as a key energy supplier, given that it currently accounts for around one-quarter of the EU’s gas imports. As a result, rising geopolitical uncertainty could affect the EU’s economic conditions, including the energy market.”
Outlook: Solid Foundations, but Fragile Balance
While forecasts for 2026 assume the continuation of economic growth, its scale and durability will depend on the stability of conditions in subsequent quarters. Even with solid foundations—such as investment, domestic demand, and a gradual improvement in the external environment—fiscal and geopolitical risks could quickly turn the situation against Poland.
Forecasts for Selected Macroeconomic Variables (Source: Coface)
| Variable | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP, y/y (%) | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (national accounts), y/y (%) | 8.5 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 12.0 |
| Household consumption (national accounts), y/y (%) | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 4.0 |
| CPI, y/y (%) | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| NBP reference rate, end of quarter (%) | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
Source: CEO.com.pl (Coface)
