Poland’s economy has recorded the fastest growth among the larger economies of the European Union in recent quarters. In 2025, the country’s GDP expanded by 3.6%, reflecting a strong macroeconomic performance. This economic resilience has been highlighted in the latest global risk assessment published by Coface. In its newest “Risk Review,” Poland’s country risk rating was upgraded from A4 to A3, one of the highest ratings in the region. The decision confirms the country’s solid macroeconomic fundamentals and the relatively stable condition of its corporate sector. What factors led to this upgrade, and what may drive Poland’s economic outlook in 2026?
The “Risk Review” is a cyclical analysis conducted by Coface, in which economists assess macroeconomic conditions in 160 countries worldwide. Coface’s country risk rating measures the risk associated with business activity in a given economy, taking into account both the broader economic environment and factors affecting corporate stability. The rating combines an econometric model—including economic and financial indicators as well as institutional quality—with expert assessments from regional economists.
In the latest edition of the report, the upgrade of Poland’s rating was one of only seven rating changes globally, alongside adjustments for countries such as Sweden, Cyprus, Chile, Ecuador, Senegal and Barbados. Poland’s promotion to A3 was therefore not incidental and reflects several structural strengths in the country’s economic performance.
Strong growth and optimistic outlook for 2026
The decision to raise Poland’s risk rating was largely driven by the country’s economic growth and positive forecasts for the coming quarters.
“The upgrade from A4 to A3 confirms that Poland maintains solid economic foundations despite a less favourable economic environment in Europe,” said Dr. Mateusz Dadej, Chief Economist of Coface for Poland and the Central and Eastern Europe region.
He noted that Poland’s growth performance has been particularly impressive not only compared with the weaker economic environment in Western Europe but also relative to other Central and Eastern European economies at similar levels of development and productivity.
“At the same time, relatively low inflation indicates that the economy is not overheating,” the economist added.
The current risk assessment for Poland is among the highest in Central and Eastern Europe and is on par with the rating assigned to Germany, Poland’s largest trading partner.
Coface also expects a continued inflow of European Union funds and a positive impact from interest rate cuts on Poland’s economy in 2026. As a result, GDP growth next year is projected to reach around 3.8%, driven largely by rising public investment.
Will 2026 bring better conditions for businesses?
Although Poland’s macroeconomic performance has been strong, the corporate sector has not always fully reflected this favourable macroeconomic backdrop.
“Despite the dynamic growth observed in recent quarters, the condition of the corporate sector has not always kept pace with positive macroeconomic indicators,” Dr. Dadej explained.
However, recent developments suggest that this situation may gradually improve. The slowdown in wage growth is beginning to reduce cost pressures faced by companies, which should support an improvement in corporate profitability over time.
If the current trends continue, the combination of stronger investment, stable macroeconomic fundamentals and easing cost pressures could create a more favourable operating environment for Polish businesses in the coming months.
