Although Poland’s construction and assembly output increased by more than 5% year on year in June 2026, with infrastructure activity rising by almost 19%, the construction market continues to operate in difficult conditions. According to the EFL Barometer for the third quarter of 2026, 41% of construction companies expect to reduce investment spending. However, industry representatives hope that further inflows of EU funding under Poland’s Recovery and Resilience Plan and the 2021–2027 financial framework will stimulate investment over the coming months.
“Statistics Poland data for the end of the first half of the year suggest that the market is performing relatively well. Construction and assembly output increased in the second quarter, unlike in the first quarter when we recorded significant declines caused primarily by weather conditions and what was, by Polish standards, a relatively harsh winter,” says Piotr Warmuła, Director of Sales for Machinery, Equipment and Agriculture at EFL.
“We are seeing particularly strong improvement in civil engineering, where output in June increased by almost 20% compared with June 2025,” he told Newseria.
Construction sentiment is improving, but remains negative
According to Statistics Poland, the general business climate indicator for the construction sector stood at -2.6 in June 2026, compared with -3.4 in May and -6.6 in the same month a year earlier.
Despite the improvement in June, construction and assembly output declined by nearly 3% over the entire first half of 2026.
Infrastructure recorded a modest increase of 0.2%, while building construction fell by 6.5% and specialised construction activities declined by 2.9%.
“After good results in May, both building construction and specialised construction recorded declines in June,” Warmuła says.
“Residential construction, however, performed quite well during the first half of the year. We are seeing growth of around 3% to 3.5% in both completed dwellings and housing starts, as well as almost 20% growth in new building permits.”
Construction companies remain cautious
The modest optimism visible in Statistics Poland data is not yet reflected in business sentiment.
The construction sub-index of the EFL Barometer for Q3 2026 stood at 47 points, down 0.1 point from the previous quarter.
The indicator therefore remains below the neutral threshold of 50 points, which separates favourable business conditions from unfavourable ones.
According to EFL, this is the weakest reading for the construction sector since the fourth quarter of 2022.
Between 2023 and 2025, the construction sub-index generally remained above the current level and in some periods exceeded 54–56 points.
The latest reading suggests that construction companies are still approaching the coming months cautiously despite some improvement in operational indicators.
Sales expectations improve
The strongest positive change can be seen in companies’ expectations for sales and orders.
In the third quarter of 2026, 11% of construction companies expect sales or orders to increase, compared with just 3% in the previous quarter.
At the same time, none of the surveyed companies expects sales to decline.
“When planning for the third and fourth quarters, we had expected a much stronger recovery by now, but so far it has not materialised,” Warmuła says.
“Infrastructure construction does appear to have woken up, and we are seeing clear growth there. In the other segments, however, companies are still waiting.”
EFL expects conditions to improve progressively in the coming months, with the strongest growth likely to emerge in the fourth quarter of 2026 and over the following 12 months.
EU funds could become the main investment driver
Much of the sector’s optimism for the coming quarters is linked to EU funding.
“EU funds are continuing to flow into Poland under two major programmes: the Recovery and Resilience Plan, where only slightly more than 20% of funds have so far been allocated, and the 2021–2027 financial framework, where utilisation is also still relatively low, at around 25–30%,” Warmuła says.
“This suggests that a significant amount of funding is still due to enter the economy.”
The expectation is that these funds will increasingly translate into infrastructure projects, tenders and demand for construction services.
41% of construction companies expect to cut investment
Despite expectations of stronger project activity, investment remains the weakest area of the EFL survey.
Only 12.5% of construction companies expect to increase investment spending in Q3 2026, down from 14% in the previous quarter.
At the same time, 41% expect investment to decline, compared with 31% in the second quarter.
“There is a clear disconnect here, because a large part of the expenditure under both the Recovery and Resilience Plan and the 2021–2027 financial framework will be implemented by the end of this year and next year,” Warmuła says.
“This should ultimately have a very positive impact on capital expenditure.”
| Q3 2026 expectations | Share of construction companies |
|---|---|
| Expect higher investment | 12.5% |
| Expect lower investment | 41% |
| Expect higher sales/orders | 11% |
| Expect lower sales/orders | 0% |
| Expect improved liquidity | 8% |
| Expect deteriorating liquidity | 0% |
Companies may not see the strongest revenue growth until 2027
According to EFL’s analysis, many construction companies do not expect a significant increase in revenue until 2027, when projects currently being prepared begin to move into the construction phase.
For now, companies are focusing primarily on winning contracts, design work and preparing operational capacity.
“Investment plans are likely to remain highly selective,” Warmuła says.
“We are no longer in a market where a construction company buys machinery simply because it may be useful in the future. Today the economic calculation is decisive — the machine must be able to generate a return.”
This suggests that investment spending may increasingly follow confirmed contracts and funded projects rather than expectations of future demand alone.
Financial liquidity expectations are improving
There are also signs of improvement in companies’ liquidity expectations.
In Q3 2026, 8% of construction companies expect their liquidity position to improve, compared with 3% in the previous quarter.
None of the surveyed firms expects liquidity to deteriorate.
However, companies are not yet expecting to increase their use of external financing.
Around 11% anticipate lower demand for external financing, while 89% expect no change. None currently expects demand to increase.
This may appear surprising given the expected scale of investment in the coming quarters.
“We assume that the value of investments in the coming months will be very significant, which means external financing will be needed,” Warmuła says.
“The construction industry frequently uses external financing because of the high unit value of transactions. A single machine can cost several hundred thousand zlotys or even PLN 1 million or more.”
External financing can therefore play an important role in allowing companies to invest without putting excessive pressure on working capital.
Construction companies need flexible financing
The construction industry has specific requirements when it comes to external financing.
Companies typically value fast credit decisions, flexibility and the ability to finance both new and used machinery.
Seasonality is also important.
“For the industry, it is essential to have access to seasonal repayment schedules, because construction revenues are often uneven throughout the year and may be concentrated in particular quarters,” Warmuła says.
This is particularly relevant for companies whose cash flow depends on project completion dates, public-sector payments or seasonal construction activity.
Infrastructure is recovering faster than the rest of the market
The current picture of Poland’s construction sector is therefore mixed.
Infrastructure activity has clearly accelerated, while the overall business climate is improving compared with a year ago. Housing indicators also remain relatively resilient.
At the same time, companies continue to show significant caution when it comes to investment spending, and the EFL Barometer remains below the neutral 50-point threshold.
The key question for the coming quarters is how quickly EU funding translates from allocations and tenders into actual construction activity.
If projects financed through the Recovery and Resilience Plan and the 2021–2027 EU budget move into the implementation phase as expected, the sector could see a much stronger recovery from late 2026 and into 2027.
For now, however, infrastructure is leading the rebound while other segments remain more hesitant.
Sources: Statistics Poland; EFL Barometer for Q3 2026; Newseria.
Facebook: Poland’s construction market is beginning to recover, but companies remain cautious. Infrastructure output rose by almost 19% year on year in June, yet 41% of construction firms expect to reduce investment spending in Q3. Much now depends on how quickly EU funds translate into new projects.
X: Poland’s infrastructure construction output rose nearly 19% y/y in June, but sentiment remains weak. The EFL construction index stands at 47 points, while 41% of firms expect to cut investment in Q3 2026. EU-funded projects could drive a stronger rebound later this year and in 2027.
