The commercial real estate market in Poland has entered a phase of stabilization, maintaining a high transaction volume despite a limited number of large deals. In the first half of 2025, the total investment volume amounted to EUR 1.67 billion, which is 7% lower than a year earlier but 70% higher compared to the same period in 2023.
“There is a clear increase in investor activity in Poland’s commercial real estate market, especially in the office segment in Warsaw, assets with long-term leases, and selected warehouse projects. Sales processes are becoming increasingly competitive. High tenant activity and limited availability of free space in central Warsaw translate into growing interest from private investors, both Polish and foreign,” comments Krzysztof Cipiur, Managing Director and Head of Capital Markets at Knight Frank.
In the first half of the year, warehouse properties had the largest share of transaction volume (42%), offices maintained a strong position (25%), and the living sector—which includes institutional rental (BTR) and private student housing (PBSA)—accounted for 13% of the market. The retail sector’s share fell to 19%, and the hotel sector dropped to just 1%.
European capital still dominates, accounting for over 60% of the investment volume, with strong representation from investors from Poland and the CEE region. Domestic investors accounted for 15% of the total volume. Activity from US funds is also growing, exemplified by a sale and leaseback (SLB) transaction between Realty Income and Eko-Okna, involving the purchase of two plants for over EUR 250 million, which increased the share of American capital to 23%.
Warehouses: Record Growth and Largest SLB Transaction in the Region
The warehouse market generated nearly EUR 694 million, marking a 136% year-on-year increase. A key factor was a record SLB transaction—Eko-Okna sold two plants totaling 264,000 sqm for EUR 253 million. This was the largest SLB deal in Central and Eastern Europe.
“The warehouse segment remains attractive to institutional investors. High interest in logistics assets stems from strong fundamentals and relatively low risk. Capitalization rates for the best properties have slightly compressed to 6.25%,” highlights Krzysztof Cipiur.
Offices: Lower Volume but Steady Activity
Office transactions reached EUR 411 million. Although the number of deals remained stable, smaller properties priced below EUR 15 million dominated. Out of 23 transactions completed in the first half, 10 involved properties in Warsaw, accounting for more than half of the total volume.
“In regional markets, we observe a clear revival of local and regional capital, which is increasingly competing effectively with foreign investors. They focus on smaller, attractively priced properties with good rental potential,” notes Dorota Lachowska, Head of Market Research at Knight Frank.
Capitalization rates in this segment remain stable, slightly above 6% for prime assets.
Retail: More Deals, But Lower Volume
The retail sector saw 20 transactions totaling EUR 322 million, representing a 36% year-on-year decrease in volume despite an increase in deal count (14 deals the year before). Small retail parks and convenience stores in cities up to 100,000 inhabitants dominated.
The retail market continues to attract private and regional investors focusing on small, attractively priced properties in cities up to 100,000 residents. No transactions involving leading regional shopping centers were recorded.
Capitalization rates for the best shopping centers remain stable at approximately 6%.
Living: A Growing Sector
Investment volume in the living sector exceeded EUR 227 million, up 172% year-on-year. The largest transaction was AFI Europe’s purchase of a BTR project in Warsaw for EUR 61.8 million. Xior Student Housing acquired the private student dormitory BaseCamp in Wrocław for EUR 55 million.
“Living is currently one of the fastest-growing market segments. Foreign investors view Poland as a growth market with attractive capitalization rates, higher than in Western Europe,” adds Sylwia Jankowska, expert in the BTR and PBSA sectors at Knight Frank.
Capitalization rates stand at 5.5% for BTR and 6% for private student housing.
Strong Macroeconomic Fundamentals Support Investments
Poland remains one of the fastest-growing economies in the EU, with GDP expected to reach 3.4% growth in 2025. Inflation stabilization has led the National Bank of Poland to reduce interest rates to 5%. The European Central Bank is also continuing monetary easing, lowering its benchmark rate to 2.15%.
