In 2025, Poland’s commercial real estate market transitioned from a phase of correction to one of stabilization. Despite a 12.9% year-on-year decline in total transaction volume, the sector’s fundamentals strengthened markedly. The key segments—office and industrial/logistics—returned to growth, while a strong concentration of activity in the final quarter of the year and improving financing conditions laid solid groundwork for a widely expected rebound in 2026.
The total value of completed transactions on Poland’s investment market reached €4.3 billion in 2025, down 12.9% year on year. However, the annual figure masks a more nuanced picture. As much as 45% of the year’s volume was generated in the fourth quarter alone, signaling improving liquidity and strong investor determination to close deals before year-end. Importantly, the lower annual volume did not reflect waning interest in Poland, but rather the deferral of several large transactions to early 2026. Compared with the previous year, there were fewer single, high-profile mega-deals, while small and mid-sized transactions dominated, particularly in the industrial-logistics and retail sectors.
Economic Fundamentals and Outlook
Market stabilization has been underpinned by solid macroeconomic performance. With GDP growth of around 3.5% in 2025, Poland remained among the EU’s growth leaders. The picture was further improved by a sharp slowdown in inflation to 2.4% in December and a series of interest-rate cuts by both the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Poland, which lowered the euro area refinancing rate to 2.15% and Poland’s reference rate to 4.0%, respectively. Easier monetary conditions and expectations of faster growth in 2026 have created a more predictable environment for long-term investment strategies.
“The Polish economy is entering 2026 with a great deal of confidence. Supportive fiscal and monetary policies, combined with accelerating investment, mean GDP growth could reach as much as 4% in 2026—making Poland one of the most attractive destinations for capital in the region,”
says Wioleta Wojtczak, Head of Research at Savills Polska.
Investment Market: Volumes and Sector Structure
Investment volume in 2025 totaled just under €4.3 billion across more than 145 transactions, down 12.9% year on year. The result reflects the absence of the blockbuster retail deals seen in 2024 and the postponement of several large transactions to early 2026—pointing to a stronger start to the new year. Despite the overall decline, Q4 2025 was exceptionally active, with nearly €1.9 billion invested, accounting for 45% of the annual total.
“The concentration of activity in the final quarter shows investors are returning, albeit cautiously and selectively. Crucially, the office and industrial-logistics sectors recorded year-on-year growth of 7.4% and 11.8%, respectively,”
comments Mark Richardson, Head of Investment at Savills Polska.
Seven transactions exceeded €100 million, with a further 18 deals in the €50–100 million range. Among the largest was CPI Property Group’s repurchase of a 49% stake in its Polish office-retail portfolio from Sona Asset Management, which had been sold in 2024. Other notable deals included the acquisition of two Eko-Okna manufacturing facilities and the sale of part of the Vendo Park retail park portfolio.
Sectoral allocation highlights changing investor preferences. The industrial-logistics sector strengthened its position, increasing its share from around 25% in 2016–2020 to 37% in 2021–2025. Over the same period, the office sector’s share declined from nearly 40% to 32%, and retail from 30% to just under 23%.
Office Sector: Activity Focused on City Centers
More than 50 office transactions were completed in 2025, totaling nearly €1.8 billion—an 8.5% increase in deal count and a 7.4% rise in value year on year. Two transactions involved portfolios, both consisting exclusively of Warsaw assets. Of the 49 single-asset acquisitions, 27 were in Warsaw, with Kraków (6) and Wrocław (5) also prominent.
“Investor activity in Warsaw—especially in the city center—is supported by strong leasing fundamentals. Relatively low vacancy rates and limited new supply are creating a supply gap and upward pressure on rents,”
notes Daniel Czarnecki, Head of Landlord Representation at Savills Polska.
Assets changing hands in Warsaw were predominantly centrally located. Eighty-eight percent of investment value across 17 citywide transactions was concentrated in the core—mainly the western part of the CBD—including properties such as CPI-owned buildings, Mennica Legacy Tower, Wola Center, Senator, Vibe B, and Wronia 31.
Czech and Polish capital were the most active in the office sector, accounting for nearly 38% and over 30% of transaction value, respectively, well ahead of UK investors (just over 9%).
Prime CBD office yields in Warsaw are estimated at 6.00–6.25%, while assets outside the core and in regional cities command yields 1.25–1.50 percentage points higher.
Retail Sector: Ongoing Transformation
In retail, more than 50 transactions were completed for a total of €862 million, a nearly 48% year-on-year decline. This comparison is skewed by 2024, when over €1 billion was concentrated in just three transactions (Silesia City Center, Magnolia Park, and a six-asset portfolio acquired by Star Capital Finance). Despite the sharp fall in value, the number of deals remained broadly stable (51 versus 54 in 2024), reflecting a continued focus on small and mid-sized retail parks.
No transaction exceeded €200 million in the past 12 months. The largest included the sale of part of Trei Real Estate’s portfolio to Ares Management Corporation and Slate Asset Management, the sale of Libero Shopping Center in Katowice to Estonia’s Summus Capital, and Reticulum Group’s acquisition of a portfolio of small retail parks.
Polish investors ranked among the most active buyers, placing second by value (19%) and first by deal count (31%). However, following the Trei portfolio acquisition, U.S. capital emerged as the leading source of investment in retail assets (24%), followed by Czech investors (12.7%) and Estonian capital (12%).
Prime shopping center yields are estimated at 6.25–6.50%. Retail parks typically trade at 7.00–8.00%, while smaller convenience centers and parks see yields of 6.75–7.50%.
Growth Leader: Industrial and Logistics
The industrial-logistics sector recorded 34 transactions totaling just under €1.5 billion, making it the second sector—after offices—to post year-on-year growth (nearly 12%). Deal count rose by four.
The average transaction size exceeded €43 million, with values ranging from €2 million to over €253 million. Twelve deals exceeded €50 million, four were below €10 million, and nine fell in the €10–20 million range.
The largest deal was the portfolio sale of two Eko-Okna manufacturing plants to Realty Income. The second-largest involved two industrial assets in Bieruń and Tychy (Upper Silesia) acquired by Hillwood for around €100 million. The third was the purchase of three Panattoni warehouses by Rysy Properties Limited for approximately €84 million.
U.S. investors remained the most active, accounting for over 41% of invested capital, ahead of Czech investors (23%). Polish capital also featured among the most active groups for the first time (8%), driven by DL Invest and several private investors.
Prime industrial yields remained stable at around 6.25%, following the yield decompression seen in 2023.
Living Sector: Potential Under Construction
Investment activity in the living sector (PRS and PBSA) remained limited due to the small size of the existing stock, with most deals structured as forward purchases. Total 2025 investment exceeded €130 million across five transactions, including development-stage financings and forward sales. Two involved standing assets acquired by Xior Student Housing in Warsaw and Wrocław.
One of the most widely discussed transactions was the preliminary agreement reached mid-2025 between TAG Immobilien and Resi4Rent for the sale of over 5,300 residential units. Completion is subject to approval by UOKiK and is expected in mid-2026.
Prime PRS yields were stable at 5.50–6.00%, depending on land zoning, while top PBSA yields were around 6.00%.
Sources of Capital
Czech investors deployed over a quarter of all capital invested in Poland, largely due to CPI Property Group’s portfolio transaction, with €1.1 billion invested across 14 deals.
U.S. capital participated in 16 acquisitions totaling nearly €867 million.
Polish investors ranked third by value (nearly 20%) and were involved in 35% of all transactions by count.
Middle Eastern capital accounted for 6.8%, followed by the UK (just under 5%) and Germany (around 3.3%). All other countries combined accounted for less than 3%.
Outlook for 2026
“After a period of adjustment, 2025 marked stabilization and a return of activity, while 2026 should bring a pickup in transaction volumes,”
predicts Mark Richardson. “The first half of the year looks particularly active, with several deals already under negotiation or announced at the preliminary agreement stage.”
Expected transactions include the Resi4Rent residential portfolio sale, Adventum Penta Fund SCA SICAV-RAIF’s acquisition of eight retail assets from Auchan, and further disposals from Trei Real Estate’s retail park portfolio. Retail activity is also expected in large shopping centers, while the office market should see a return of larger, prime-grade transactions.
“While overall liquidity is set to improve, investors will remain selective. Premium assets in core locations should outperform, while properties in less favored locations or requiring capex will trade at a discount—often supported by credible repositioning strategies,”
adds Wioleta Wojtczak.
Capital from Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic states is expected to remain highly active, alongside a gradual return of Western European investors as liquidity improves in their home markets. Domestic investors are also set to remain a stable and significant component of market activity.
Alongside traditional real estate funds, family offices are becoming increasingly visible, seeking stable income, capital preservation, and value-add opportunities across sectors.
Source: CEO.com.pl
