The first months of 2025 brought notable activity in Poland’s commercial real estate market, with 12 transactions completed in just the first two months. These included assets across all sectors, signaling a dynamic start to the year. In April, the country witnessed its largest-ever sale & leaseback deal, not only domestically but also in the entire Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. Polish window manufacturer Eko-Okna sold two logistics facilities totaling approximately 264,000 m², valued at nearly PLN 1 billion, and simultaneously leased them back. The buyer was the U.S.-based REIT, Realty Income Corporation.
Thanks to this landmark deal, total investment volume by the end of April reached about €1.1 billion, significantly surpassing the volume recorded in the same period of 2024. This early momentum suggested a strong recovery in large-scale logistics deals, long-awaited by the market.
A Slow May – or Just a Pause?
May saw a brief slowdown, with only three office-sector transactions in Warsaw, totaling around €70 million. But experts believe this dip is temporary.
“May’s figures are modest, but not indicative of a wider slowdown,” says Marcin Purgal, Senior Director of Investment at Avison Young. “Our sales pipeline remains solid. We still expect the 2025 volume to exceed €5 billion, driven especially by large deals in logistics and retail. The cautious approach of institutional investors over recent years has been due to factors like declining asset values, high financing costs, and limited lending availability. Globally and in Poland, we’re seeing more activity from smaller players, private capital, and value-add funds, taking advantage of lower prices.”
Polish Capital Gaining Ground
Polish capital is playing an increasingly prominent role—not just in residential, but also in commercial real estate. Of the three deals in May, two were made by Polish investors. Avison Young advised on one of them: the sale of Warsaw’s Lighthouse office building, acting as joint agent for the seller, Octava Property Trust.
From 2018 to 2022, Polish capital accounted for just ~2% of annual market volume. Since 2023, this has risen sharply—surpassing 7% and 10% in subsequent years. In 2024, Polish investors made 40 transactions, representing 31% of total deals by number, and 10% by value. The average transaction size was €12 million.
In Q1 2025 alone, Polish buyers completed 12 deals, accounting for 34% by number and 17% by volume, with an average deal value of €10 million.
“Polish investors, often using cash, tend to focus on smaller, lower-priced assets. In the retail segment, that includes standalone grocery stores and retail parks valued at €5–15 million, or even €30 million for larger, newer properties. In offices, they target older, well-located buildings with stable cash flow,” adds Purgal.
Logistics Sector Leading the Way
As of Q1 2025, the warehouse and logistics sector led in investment volume, reaching €202 million (29% of the total), excluding the massive Eko-Okna deal. No other logistics deals were recorded in April or May.
Still, the market expects a resurgence in portfolio deals and M&A activity. One major deal has already closed: GLP sold a logistics portfolio, including Polish assets, to Ares Management as part of a global M&A transaction.
Retail: Convenience Dominates, Prime Centers on the Horizon
After several prime shopping center sales in 2024, early 2025 has been dominated by “convenience” retail assets. These remain a safe and attractive investment class, especially amid economic uncertainty. More deals are expected in this segment, particularly involving retail parks and grocery-anchored formats.
At the same time, dominant regional malls in cities with solid fundamentals are drawing attention from investors and may soon return to the market.
Office Sector: Selective but Steady
Office investments in Poland continue to attract interest, though buyers remain highly selective. Strategies such as value-add and core+ are gaining popularity in markets where price expectations between buyers and sellers are aligning.
Core investors remain cautious, avoiding exposure to economic and geopolitical uncertainty, while value-add and opportunistic buyers are showing measured activity, focusing on bargains.
“A notable trend is the acquisition of entire buildings for owner-occupation or partial self-use and leasing,” says Purgal. “Recent examples include Ryanair, Enter Air, the Prosecutor General’s Office, and the Polish Football Association (PZPN)—all of whom bought office buildings (vacant or partly leased) to use as headquarters, following renovations and fit-outs. From a user’s perspective, buying and renovating can be more cost-effective than leasing or building from scratch.”
Outlook for the Remainder of 2025
Despite the temporary dip in May, Poland’s commercial real estate market shows resilience and growing diversity in investor types. Polish capital is becoming a key player, especially in smaller transactions, while logistics and convenience retail continue to lead sector-wise. Larger institutional deals—particularly in logistics and dominant retail centers—could determine whether 2025 surpasses the €5 billion mark.
Source:
CEO.com.pl – Polish Commercial Real Estate Market After the First Five Months of 2025
