Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in global trade, Poland’s commercial real estate market began 2025 with a noticeable surge in investment activity. In the first quarter, transactions reached a total value of €686 million, marking a 64% increase compared to the same period in 2024, according to the BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland report “Review: Investment Market in Poland, Q1 2025.” Investors are increasingly shifting toward smaller, more flexible assets.
The volume of completed transactions in early 2025 indicates a market revival, even though activity levels remain below the record highs of 2018–2019. BNP Paribas Real Estate analysts point out that Poland continues to be an attractive destination for foreign investors, including newcomers, as evidenced by the growing number of submitted offers.
European capital dominated the investment structure, accounting for 61% of total funds. Notably, 32% came from outside the eurozone, with over half of that figure originating from Poland. Investors from the Middle East contributed 17%, while capital from the Americas made up 13% of the total volume. According to Mateusz Skubiszewski, Head of Capital Markets at BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland, geopolitical factors—including ongoing negotiations between Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine, as well as global trade tensions—pose potential challenges to the market. However, the recent interest rate cut in the eurozone and the prospect of further easing may reignite investor appetite for commercial real estate across Europe and in Poland.
A key trend in Q1 was the rise in smaller transactions. Investments of up to €20 million increased by 47% year-over-year, while the €40–100 million segment saw a remarkable 187% jump. This points to growing interest in projects with more predictable risk profiles and simpler asset management. Larger portfolio deals were notably absent—only three transactions exceeded €50 million—suggesting a wait-and-see approach among many investors and a broader shift toward smaller, more manageable assets.
Capitalization rates remained stable across core asset classes, reflecting investor caution amid ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. Prime offices and warehouses held at 6.25%, shopping centers at 6.50%, and e-commerce logistics assets at approximately 5.25%. Karolina Wojciechowska, Head of Capital Markets at BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland, notes that the lack of major decompression in yields signals investors are awaiting further declines in financing costs and greater macroeconomic stability. The anticipated loosening of monetary policy in the eurozone, combined with lower debt costs, could support gradual yield compression in the coming quarters.
Industrial and logistics assets led the market with €202 million in investment volume—up 47% year-on-year. Four of the five largest transactions during the period were in this segment, including:
- Panattoni Park Tricity South II (78,000 m²) – €59 million, acquired by Clarion
- P3 Grodzisk Park (69,000 m²) – €53 million, acquired by Prologis
- Panattoni Park Tricity East V (50,000 m²) – €41 million, acquired by Fortress REIT
- Panattoni Park Gdańsk IV & East II (42,000 m²) – €36 million, acquired by Hillwood
Retail and office assets also regained momentum. The retail sector ranked second with €189 million in investments—a 203% year-on-year increase. Office properties attracted €164 million, up 53% from Q1 2024. The largest office deal was the sale of the Wronia 31 building in Warsaw (16,000 m²), which Uniqa Real Estate acquired from LaSalle IM for €69 million.
Despite global uncertainty, Poland’s commercial real estate market is showing strong resilience and renewed investor interest, particularly in well-positioned, lower-risk assets.
Source: ceo.com.pl
Report: BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland
