The total value of investment transactions on the Polish commercial real estate market reached approximately €2.4 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, according to Savills Poland’s report “Investment Market in Poland, Q1–Q3 2025.” Although this represents a 6% decline year-on-year, the number of transactions increased by the same percentage, indicating that investor activity remains strong despite a more challenging macroeconomic environment. The third quarter alone closed at nearly €800 million, similar to last year — partly due to typical summer-season slowdown.
Seasonality and the Year-End Outlook
This year’s YTD volume is around €1 billion below the 10-year average, but Savills notes that the fourth quarter traditionally accounts for around 35% of annual transactions. If current momentum holds, full-year investment volume may exceed €4 billion, though it is unlikely to match last year’s result.
Mark Richardson, Head of Investment, Savills:
“Investors remain active but are extremely selective. In the current environment, asset quality and income stability are absolutely critical. Core and core-plus transactions are still limited, but we observe significantly more activity in the value-add segment, where investors are looking to rebuild value through refurbishment, repurposing or repositioning.”
Logistics and Residential (“Living”) Leading the Growth
Between January and September:
- Office sector retained its leadership with €900 million in volume across 36 transactions — a 11% decline y/y.
- Industrial & logistics investment rose 19% to €873 million across 18 transactions.
- The living (residential rental / PRS) segment saw the strongest growth — +71% to €86.5 million, although from a low transaction base.
- Investors spent €456 million on retail assets, down 29% y/y, but with the highest number of deals — 39 in total.
Among the largest transactions of the year were:
- the €253.5 million sale of Eko-Okna’s production facilities
- the €180 million sale of Warsaw’s Mennica Legacy Tower office complex
Wioleta Wojtczak, Associate Director, Head of Research, Savills:
“The 2025 data confirms a gradual stabilization of the investment market. While overall volumes remain below historical averages, the number of transactions is growing, and activity is spreading across an increasingly diversified mix of sectors. This is a positive signal — it reflects a return of trust in the Polish market, alongside a strategic adaptation to the new cost-of-capital environment.”
Domestic Capital Gains Ground
Polish investors — primarily private — remain one of the most active groups in the market. They were responsible for one-third of all transactions and 23.8% of total volume. Notable buyers this year included ME Invest in the retail segment and Syrena Real Estate, which acquired the Zaułek Piękna office building in Warsaw. Local municipalities and industry organisations are also becoming increasingly active.
The share of investors from CEE and Baltic markets is estimated at around 7%, U.S. capital accounts for 20% and Western European investors for 18%.
Capitalisation Rates Remain Stable
Prime yield levels remained stable across all sectors in Q3 2025. The recent European interest rate cuts have not yet led to yield compression. Current headline yields are:
- Offices: 6.00%
- Industrial & logistics: 6.25%
- Retail: 6.25%
- PRS: 5.50%
- PBSA (student housing): 6.00%
The report concludes that any future yield movement will depend on investor activity in prime assets and potential benchmark-setting transactions, which could once again reset market pricing expectations.
