Although the total investment volume in Poland’s commercial real estate market reached approximately €4.5 billion in 2025—down 13% year-on-year—the past 12 months brought a clear structural shift. One of the most notable developments was the surge in domestic Polish capital, which accounted for around 20% of the total investment volume, up by more than 11 percentage points compared with the previous year. Experts at the international advisory firm Cushman & Wakefield say this trend reflects the market’s growing maturity and the increasing influence of local investors.
“From a capital markets perspective, the unprecedented share of Polish capital was one of the defining phenomena of 2025,” says Marcin Kocerba, Partner, Capital Markets at Cushman & Wakefield. “These aren’t just statistics—Polish investors accounted for 20% of total volume and as much as 30% of the office segment. This is tangible proof of the professionalization of local players. They now have the expertise, relationships, and decisiveness to operate in uncertain conditions that still discourage many international entities.”
Sector Performance: A Multi-Speed Recovery
In 2025, each segment of the market followed a different trajectory, with office and industrial properties leading overall activity.
Office Sector (€1.74 billion)
Offices generated the largest share of investment volume. Activity was heavily concentrated in Warsaw, particularly in central locations where supply remains limited and rents continue to rise. One-third of all office transactions were completed by domestic investors, underscoring the growing role of Polish capital in shaping this segment.
Industrial and Logistics (€1.33 billion)
The industrial and logistics market continued to benefit from long-term drivers such as e-commerce, nearshoring, and supply-chain digitalization. The single largest transaction across the entire commercial real estate market was the sale-and-leaseback acquisition of two EKO-OKNA facilities by the Realty Income fund.
Retail Market (approximately €900 million)
Retail parks remained the preferred format for investors seeking stable cash flows and relatively high liquidity. At the same time, there were early signs of renewed interest in larger, well-established shopping centers.
“The dip in volume was primarily the result of fewer trophy retail assets changing hands,” explains Kocerba. “However, confidence is returning. Investors from France, the UK, and the US are increasingly re-evaluating Polish opportunities. If this trend continues, 2026 could prove to be a breakthrough year—especially if core funds return in greater numbers.”
CEE on the Global Radar
Central and Eastern Europe—where Poland is the largest and most liquid market—is becoming a more prominent element of institutional investment strategies. The region’s appeal is driven by solid economic fundamentals, resilience, and competitive yields. In many cases, CEE has moved into the top three geographical priorities for global investment funds.
At the same time, regional capital—especially from the Czech Republic and Poland—remains the most active and is often able to move faster and more flexibly, which matters in the current economic environment.
Outlook for 2026: Stability, Selectivity, and ESG
Market participants expect 2026 to be defined by a selective investment approach, continued strength in domestic capital, and the gradual return of Western core and core+ funds.
Key trends likely to shape 2026 include:
- Yield pressure: Elevated interest rates in the Eurozone will keep pressure on yields, but may also push investors toward stable, diversified markets such as Poland.
- The ESG imperative: Sustainability is no longer optional; it is increasingly decisive for financing conditions and for passing buyer due diligence.
- Improving liquidity: Greater flexibility among owners and better access to financing are helping to rebuild transaction momentum.
“Despite lower volumes, the market is sending clear signals of stabilization,” concludes Marcin Kocerba. “Across strategies—from core+ to opportunistic—the foundations for a recovery in 2026 are firmly in place.”
