The Polish commercial real estate market enters 2026 in solid shape and with clear growth potential. Warehouses continue to rank among the strongest sectors in Europe. Limited office supply is opening the door to a recovery in development activity, while investors—despite greater caution—have not lost confidence in Poland, says Piotr Kaszyński, Managing Partner at Newmark Poland.
The past several months have confirmed the sustained strengthening of Poland’s position within the European economy. “Surpassing USD 1 trillion in GDP and joining the ranks of the world’s most industrialized economies is not only a symbolic milestone, but proof of the effectiveness of the transformation of the past decade. Today, Poland is no longer a catching-up market—it is actively co-shaping the direction of change in the region,” Kaszyński notes. He adds that while geopolitical considerations remain a constant element of analysis, investors and businesses increasingly appreciate Poland’s regulatory stability, high-quality infrastructure, and access to skilled professionals.
Warehouse market: the “big six” still dominate
Poland’s warehouse sector remains one of the key segments of the commercial real estate market and continues to attract international investors. Last year, developers maintained a steady pace of new project deliveries, increasing total modern warehouse stock to approximately 37 million sq m by the end of 2025. Moreover, given the volume currently under construction, Newmark Poland analysts expect another around 2 million sq m of new space to be delivered this year.
The largest volumes of industrial and logistics facilities were developed in the Mazowieckie, Pomorskie, Śląskie, and Dolnośląskie regions, with smaller—but still significant—additions in Łódzkie and Wielkopolskie. Together, these regions accounted for more than 80% of new supply.
“The advantage of these locations stems not only from favorable geography, good transport links, and developed logistics, but also from access to skilled labor. The largest warehouse regions jointly offer a comprehensive and diversified proposition—from sites near major airports, through access to seaports, to proximity to the western border or industrial clusters. This allows companies with very different operational needs to find locations precisely suited to their activities, which further strengthens the overall stability of the market,” emphasizes Kaszyński.
Stable demand, fewer relocations
Greater caution was also evident among warehouse tenants, shifting demand toward lease renegotiations, which accounted for over half of all transactions last year. “Companies analyzed locations and technical standards more carefully, seeking certainty that relocation would genuinely improve operational efficiency. Some tenants whose operations do not require advanced solutions chose to remain in older, less modern facilities that still meet their needs. Another factor behind contract extensions was concern about losing part of the workforce as a result of relocation,” explains Kaszyński.
Despite the higher share of renegotiations, the Managing Partner of Newmark Poland stresses that market fundamentals remain strong. “The growth of e-commerce, last-mile logistics, and ongoing upgrades to road, rail, and port infrastructure kept total demand last year at an estimated around 6 million sq m, close to the 2024 level. We expect warehouse requirements to increase gradually this year. Developers, with land already prepared, can respond relatively quickly to higher demand, which should help maintain supply liquidity,” he adds.
Competition intensifies for large, modern offices
One of the most profound transformations in recent years has taken place in the office market. Technology has given companies unprecedented flexibility, yet offices remain essential for building culture and strengthening competitive advantage. “This duality has strongly influenced tenant decision-making, with growing emphasis on the long-term value of offices—location, technical quality, and surrounding amenities. At the same time, supply of the most sought-after assets—large, modern units in prime locations—is limited, forcing many companies to rethink their strategies,” says Kaszyński.
In 2025, for the first time on such a scale, total office stock declined. The pace at which older buildings were withdrawn exceeded new deliveries. Why? “Tenants expect high quality, and some buildings from two or three decades ago cannot meet today’s technological or environmental standards. Owners increasingly opt for refurbishments, which temporarily remove properties from use, or for complete changes of function—deepening the supply gap in the office market,” explains Kaszyński.
Warsaw and regional markets
At the same time—especially in Warsaw—differences in absorption across city submarkets are becoming increasingly apparent. In central locations, every well-located, modern square meter is leased quickly, while on the outskirts vacant units are still available, though they require closer scrutiny in terms of quality, transport accessibility, and service infrastructure.
In regional cities, higher vacancy rates might suggest stronger negotiating power for tenants. “However, this stock is highly fragmented and often does not meet companies’ quality requirements—particularly those seeking higher standards. This is most evident for larger offices: companies looking for spaces exceeding 5,000 sq m have virtually no real alternatives. In the regions, new modern projects are scarce, so even where availability appears high, effective choice remains limited. As a result, staying in the current building often becomes the only realistic option for firms needing large, well-connected, ESG-compliant space. This trend is also reflected in the data—the share of renegotiations in total demand across major office markets remained high last year, at around 50%,” notes Kaszyński.
Old versus new: a two-speed market
Rising construction costs are colliding with the defensive strategies of many funds and expectations of high returns. According to Kaszyński, capital is primarily seeking safety rather than aggressive acquisitions. In practice, this means longer asset holding periods and selective launches of new projects—only in locations with the highest commercial potential. As a result, the availability of high-standard space will gradually decline in the coming years, forcing tenants to plan decisions earlier and with greater determination than before.
“In 2026, this equation will not change. New office supply will remain insufficient, and total stock has already fallen to around 13 million sq m. Large-scale tenants will continue to compete for the limited options available. In the most desirable buildings, availability will shrink further; in older ones, it will increase—underscoring the market’s dual-track nature. Renegotiations will remain a key component of demand. For tenants, this means earlier strategic planning and faster decision-making,” Kaszyński comments.
Cautious optimism grounded in facts
Poland’s commercial real estate market closed 2025 in good condition and with a clearly defined direction. “The warehouse sector maintained high activity and now faces another wave of demand driven by e-commerce, manufacturing, and supply-chain relocations. In the office market, limited supply has created room for a recovery in development activity, while companies are increasingly confident in planning growth in the best-prepared locations. At the same time, investors—despite greater selectivity—view Poland as a stable and scalable market that could attract more capital again in 2026. Many signals suggest that 2026 will bring a gradual rebound, built on solid fundamentals rather than rapid growth,” concludes Piotr Kaszyński, Managing Partner at Newmark Poland.
Source: ceo.com.pl
