The number of registered births and women of childbearing age is declining in Polish cities. According to experts, the worsening demographic situation across the country could lead to serious consequences. Nurseries and kindergartens are already being closed, while a growing number of people are reaching retirement age, which also means lower tax revenues. Experts warn that local government finances may suffer as a result, potentially requiring greater support from the state.
“Poland’s demographic situation is very difficult. We know that the population is shrinking and will continue to shrink. There will be a group of cities where the decline is relatively small, although there will be virtually no city where this does not happen. In other places, the decrease will be dramatic, especially in the smallest towns. As a result, many cities may lose as much as 50 percent of their population in the coming years,” Ryszard Grobelny, Director of the Office at the Association of Polish Cities, told Newseria.
In the first half of 2025, more than 90 cities recorded fewer than 10 births, while 15 recorded fewer than five. In one city, no births were registered at all. Overall, the number of births declined compared with 2024 in more than 630 cities and urban municipalities, while more than 330 cities recorded an increase compared with the first half of 2024.
A total of 82,786 children were born in Polish cities in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of more than 7 percent. The figures come from the latest Report on the State of Cities 2025, prepared by the Association of Polish Cities.
“The basic consequence of demographic change is that if children are not being born, they will not start school seven years from now. This means that first kindergartens and then schools will have to be closed. We can already see public debate increasingly focused on the need to close maternity wards. If children are not being born, why do we need maternity units? As a result, the availability of public services for local communities declines,” Grobelny said.
In the 2024/2025 school year, Poland had 22,300 pre-school education facilities, 200 fewer than in the previous school year, representing a 1 percent decline. Nearly 1.5 million children attended them, down by 59,700, or 3.9 percent year on year, according to the latest available data from Statistics Poland.
“Cities are already feeling the effects of demographic change. At the moment, this is most visible in the closure of nurseries and kindergartens, as well as preparations for the eventual closure of primary schools. They are not doing it yet. Many local authorities are thinking: we will do it in the next term, after the elections, so as not to create additional tension beforehand,” the expert said.
In January, Damian Kowalczyk, a Warsaw city councillor, reported that 35 pre-school classes and three kindergartens had been closed in 2025.
“Local governments are postponing their decisions, but they can already see that in some places they face enormous problems, including rising numbers of vacant properties. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find people to work, even in local government offices. This snowball effect will grow very quickly, and many cities will feel it even more strongly in one, two or three years,” Grobelny said.
According to the authors of the Association of Polish Cities report, housing shortages will persist in larger urban centres, while the growing number of vacant properties in weaker cities will become a structural problem. Data from Poland’s 2021 National Census showed that the country had nearly 1.8 million unoccupied dwellings.
“Demographic change then affects the labour market. There will be fewer workers, and that has consequences for public finances. If there are fewer people in work and more people in retirement, tax revenues decline. It then becomes more difficult to provide public services. The financial situation of local governments deteriorates. We must prepare for this both at the national level and at the city level,” said the Director of the Office at the Association of Polish Cities.
In more than 900 Polish cities, the working-age population declined in 2024 by a combined total of 155,000 people. At the same time, fewer than 100 cities recorded growth in this age group, amounting to only 18,300 people in total, according to the Association of Polish Cities report.
“Demographic change primarily has a negative impact on finances. Public revenues come from people — they are our money. If there are fewer of us contributing because, for example, we are retirees rather than employees of a successful company, we pay less in taxes. Our local government then has less money to meet our needs, while at the same time we are older and expect greater support through various public services. Suddenly, there is a growing gap between what is possible and what people expect,” Grobelny said.
The financial outlook after 2030 will be shaped in particular by demographic trends. As a result of changes in the size and age structure of the population, cities are likely to see slower growth in their shares of personal and corporate income tax revenues, according to the Association of Polish Cities report.
“Local government finances will become much more difficult in the near future, and it appears that a significant proportion of municipalities will become more dependent on transfers from the state budget. The state is not prepared for this and does not want to do it. However, if it does not provide support, many local governments and residents will lose access to basic public services,” Grobelny warned.
According to the report, Polish cities will experience deepening depopulation by 2035–2040 as a result of record-low fertility rates and a systematic decline in the number of women of childbearing age. In many cities, population ageing will lead to people aged over 65 accounting for more than 40 percent of all residents.
“I have the impression that cities still believe demographic change can be reversed, which is why they are not taking difficult decisions. Many local governments must begin taking action to adapt to a smaller population. A city of 40,000 residents needs to consider how it will function when it has 30,000 or even 25,000 inhabitants. It needs to ask what schools will be needed, where sewerage infrastructure should be maintained and which areas should be developed. This requires deliberate and long-term planning,” Grobelny said.
