A 25-basis-point interest-rate cut is becoming an increasingly plausible scenario ahead of the September meeting of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council. Such a move would lower the National Bank of Poland’s reference rate from 3.75% to 3.50%, although the decision remains finely balanced.
The strongest argument for easing is inflation. Headline CPI has moved much closer to the NBP’s 2.5% target, while underlying price pressure has also moderated compared with previous quarters.
Inflation supports a cut, growth argues for caution
Poland’s economy remains relatively strong. GDP expanded by 3.8% year on year in the second quarter, while wages in the enterprise sector continued to rise. That means policymakers are not under immediate pressure to stimulate activity with significantly lower borrowing costs.
Geopolitical risks and energy prices remain another source of uncertainty. A renewed increase in oil or gas prices could slow the disinflation process and make the Council more cautious.
A single move may be more likely than a rapid easing cycle
NBP Governor Adam Glapiński has previously indicated that a 25-basis-point reduction could be considered in September. If incoming inflation data remain favourable, the Council may decide that a modest cut is consistent with keeping inflation close to target.
Even then, a rapid sequence of reductions appears less certain. Policymakers are likely to continue watching core inflation, wage growth, energy prices and geopolitical developments before deciding on further moves.
