Poland’s building materials market is entering a phase of sharp cost shock. Although February data, soon to be published by Grupa PSB, will most likely still show relative stability, the situation in March already looks markedly different. In several segments, prices are rising abruptly, quotations remain valid only for a few hours, and contractors are beginning to struggle with the availability of key materials.
The conflict in the Middle East erupted only at the very end of the month, which means that any changes visible in February price dynamics will likely remain statistically insignificant and fail to capture the scale of current cost tensions.
This does not mean, however, that the market has remained unchanged. Experts from RynekPierwotny.pl emphasise that the first signals coming from March point to a potential shift into a completely new phase of the cycle for the construction sector.
At the beginning of 2026, the situation in the building materials market remained relatively stable. Price growth was low, and in some product categories declines were even observed. The market operated in an environment of relatively stable energy prices, predictable transport costs and well-organised supply chains. This baseline makes the current developments appear not as a continuation of an earlier trend, but rather as a sudden and significant turning point.
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has translated into higher oil and gas prices, which in turn are driving up the production costs of building materials. One of the most striking examples is the polystyrene market. Within just a few weeks, prices have surged by several dozen percent, and in some cases by more than 100 percent. The ability to guarantee prices at the time of ordering has effectively disappeared, commercial offers are valid for only a few hours, and supply shortages are beginning to emerge. This reflects the strong link between polystyrene production and the oil market, making this segment particularly sensitive to geopolitical shocks.
Although the most dramatic changes are currently visible in polystyrene, cost pressures are spreading to other key materials. The steel market is being affected by a combination of rising energy costs, tensions in global trade, import restrictions within the European Union and logistical disruptions related to the situation in the Persian Gulf. Under such conditions, experts estimate that steel prices in Europe could increase by around 5 to 10 percent in the coming months, with the potential for even higher growth in more adverse scenarios.
While steel is not directly dependent on Middle Eastern supplies, it is strongly influenced by energy costs and logistics. Steel production is highly energy-intensive, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz region are increasing both fuel prices and the cost of transporting raw materials. At the same time, the rerouting of maritime transport along longer paths, such as around Africa, extends delivery times and raises freight costs, affecting the entire supply chain.
As a result, cost pressure is no longer confined to a single segment but is spreading across a wide range of materials. Cement and concrete are affected through energy costs, structural materials such as steel through a combination of energy, trade and logistics factors, while transportation costs are rising across the board. Prefabricated elements and construction chemicals are also becoming more expensive. This indicates that the sharp increases currently observed in one area may soon extend to the entire building materials market.
Importantly, unlike previous periods of price increases, the current shock is simultaneous and broad-based. It affects both petrochemical raw materials and structural materials, which significantly increases the risk that cost inflation will be more widespread and more difficult to contain.
The most important shift is not yet the absolute level of prices, but the way the market functions. Until recently, pricing was relatively stable, investment costs could be planned with a reasonable degree of certainty, and deliveries followed predictable schedules. Today, prices are becoming increasingly volatile, manufacturers are limiting price guarantees, and the risk of delays and shortages is rising. In previous cycles, this loss of predictability has often been an early signal of stronger price increases in the months ahead.
In this context, the February 2026 data from Grupa PSB will primarily serve as a historical reference point, reflecting market conditions before the current shock. Regardless of whether these figures show stabilisation or only modest increases, they will not capture the changes that began to materialise in March. It will be the subsequent data releases that reveal whether the current cost impulse translates into a lasting shift in the price trajectory of building materials.
The market has clearly reached a turning point. While past data may still suggest stability, current developments point to rapidly rising uncertainty and the emergence of a new wave of cost pressure. Whether this pressure, now affecting both insulation and structural materials, evolves into a sustained increase in prices will depend largely on the future course of the Middle East conflict, the level of energy and raw material prices, and the response of global supply chains.
