According to forecasts by AXI IMMO, the largest Polish advisory firm in the commercial real estate market, the warehouse sector will remain one of the most stable segments of Poland’s commercial property market at the end of 2025. Despite a clear slowdown in new supply, tenant activity is expected to stay high, while key market indicators—such as vacancy rates and rents—should remain relatively stable. AXI IMMO analysts indicate that the market has entered a phase of mature equilibrium, where decisions are made more cautiously but are firmly grounded in companies’ real operational needs.
Total gross demand for modern warehouse space in Poland in 2025 may exceed 6 million sq m, making it the third-highest result in the market’s history, behind only the record activity of 2021–2022, when annual volumes reached up to 7 million sq m. Lease renewals account for a growing share of demand and already represent around half of all leasing transactions.
Anna Głowacz, Director of the Industrial and Logistics Department at AXI IMMO, comments:
“Tenants, having largely optimized their logistics networks, are increasingly choosing to remain in proven locations, focusing on cost stability and operational efficiency. Net demand—covering new leases and expansions—may reach around 3 million sq m across 2025, in line with our forecasts.”
On the supply side, developers are showing greater caution. The volume of new space delivered in 2025 is estimated at around 1.8 million sq m, a significant decline compared with previous years and the lowest level since 2016. New projects are primarily delivered on a pre-let basis or in BTS (build-to-suit) formats, while speculative developments remain limited. Developers are focusing on markets with established demand and on projects tailored to specific tenant requirements.
Limited new supply combined with stable demand should keep the national vacancy rate at around 8%.
Monika Rykowska, Director of Research and Market Analysis at AXI IMMO, explains:
“In established markets, the availability of modern warehouse space is gradually decreasing, while higher vacancy levels are mainly seen in regions with a larger number of speculative projects delivered in previous years.”
By the end of 2025, headline rents for big-box warehouse space are expected to remain stable, ranging from approximately EUR 3.6 to EUR 6.0 per sq m per month, depending on location and building standard. After the rapid rent growth of 2021–2023, the market has entered a phase of rental equilibrium. Financial incentives are now more selective and increasingly dependent on lease length and scale.
The year 2025 has also confirmed long-term trends shaping Poland’s warehouse sector. Key among them are the rising share of renegotiations, continued e-commerce expansion, and a growing emphasis on ESG solutions and energy efficiency. Tenants are increasingly seeking properties with robust technical infrastructure and solutions that reduce operating costs and carbon footprints.
According to AXI IMMO experts, 2026 is expected to bring a continuation of stable yet dynamic growth in Poland’s logistics and industrial sector, underpinned by solid economic growth, further e-commerce expansion, and ongoing investments in transport infrastructure.
Source: ceo.com.pl
