Ukrainian refugees generated 2.7% of Poland’s GDP in 2024, according to an analysis by Deloitte prepared for UNHCR. The report shows that 69% of adult Ukrainians in Poland are employed or actively seeking work. Polish companies are increasingly reporting the need for foreign workers — a trend that will intensify due to demographic changes. At the same time, employers notice growing competition from other EU countries, especially Germany, which forces them to compete more aggressively for Ukrainian workers.
“We must wait to fully assess the long-term contribution of Ukrainian workers to Poland’s GDP. But in the short term, we can see that Ukrainians are working in professions that are not popular among Poles. Polish workers want more opportunities for development, want to take higher positions and earn more. This has created space for workers earning the minimum wage,” says Rafał Komarewicz, Member of the Polish Parliament (Polska 2050) and chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Economy and Development.
“As Poland — and as Parliament and government — we must understand the needs of Polish employers. There are professions in which Poles simply do not want to work for various reasons, often because they offer little development or low pay. In those areas, we need workers from abroad.”
The report “Analysis of the Impact of Ukrainian Refugees on the Polish Economy”, prepared by Deloitte for UNHCR, shows that seven out of ten Ukrainians who fled to Poland after the start of the war are working. Their employment rate is only slightly lower than that of Polish citizens (75%).
“The impact of Ukrainian migrants on the Polish economy is positive. By paying taxes and social security contributions, they support the growth of Polish companies and the economy. It is estimated that Ukrainian war refugees alone accounted for nearly 3% of Poland’s GDP in 2024,” says Nadia Winiarska, employment expert at Konfederacja Lewiatan.
According to Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK), tax and social security contributions paid by Ukrainians working in Poland exceeded 15 billion PLN in 2024. For every 1 PLN received in the form of the 800+ child benefit, Ukrainians contributed 5.4 PLN in taxes and contributions.
Poland Will Need Even More Migrants
BGK’s report shows that due to demographic change, Poland will soon need significantly more migrants than the current number of Ukrainians living in the country. However, research by the International Organization for Migration shows that in 2023, only 43% of Ukrainian refugees planned to stay in Poland permanently. According to NBP data cited by BGK, only one in five refugees and one in two pre-war Ukrainian migrants intend to stay longer.
Experts therefore stress that encouraging Ukrainians to remain in Poland is crucial to maximizing their positive economic impact. This requires providing:
- stable, well-paid employment,
- adequate housing,
- access to public education,
- language and vocational training.
“Regarding the risk of Ukrainians leaving for other EU countries, the situation is different now than a few years ago. Not every country is as eager to accept Ukrainian workers anymore. Cultural factors also matter — not only financial ones. I believe Ukrainian workers will want to stay in Poland,” says Komarewicz.
However, the reality suggests otherwise.
“Losing Ukrainian workers to Germany and Benelux countries is no longer a risk — it is a fact. For the first time, there are fewer Ukrainian workers in Poland than in Germany. Poland used to be the number one destination, but this is changing,” says Andrzej Korkus, CEO of EWL Group.
According to Eurostat, as of September 2025, 1.21 million Ukrainians were under temporary protection in Germany (28.3% of the EU total), compared with a little over 1 million in Poland (23.5%).
Competition for Workers Intensifies
“In sectors such as transport, employers often look for workers already residing in other EU countries and try to bring them to Poland. Polish companies must compete with employers across the EU. Better incentives and more stable legal frameworks abroad may draw Ukrainian workers away,” says Winiarska.
Employers must therefore compete not only on wages, but also on:
- stability of regulations,
- career progression opportunities,
- integration support.
EWL’s research shows that employment is the most important factor supporting integration.
- 33% of Ukrainians say workplace integration is key.
- 48% say Polish language courses are the most important factor improving their job prospects.
For many, the workplace is the first real contact with Polish society — and a major factor in deciding whether they will stay long-term.
Expiring Legal Protections: A Major Risk
A significant concern is the expiry of temporary protection regulations in March 2026. The majority of Ukrainian refugees in Poland currently rely on this status.
“If these regulations expire, one million people in Poland — over 70% of whom are working and contributing to the economy — will lose their legal basis for employment and residence,” warns Korkus.
“No other nationality integrates into the Polish economy as effectively as Ukrainians.”
One major challenge remains: bureaucratic delays.
In many regions, the waiting time for a residence card exceeds 12 months, hampering employment, mobility and long-term planning.
“The legal environment is unstable. Lengthy procedures and debates — such as the latest discussion about the presidential veto — make it difficult for migrants to plan their careers in Poland. Fast-track legalization and diploma recognition are crucial. The current qualification recognition system is slow and expensive,” says Winiarska.
Poland Must Open to New Migration Sources
According to the Polish Economic Institute, by 2035 Poland’s workforce will shrink by 2.1 million people. Filling this gap will require not only retaining Ukrainians but also opening to entirely new migration routes.
“We face a massive demographic challenge. In some fields, we simply cannot win the competition for workers, so we must seek alternatives — likely in South America or Asia. These will require much greater integration and social acceptance efforts,” says Korkus.
Komarewicz agrees:
“We will of course continue to have workers from Ukraine and Belarus, but we must look for new directions. I recently met with the Ambassador of Uzbekistan. These workers are pre-verified by Uzbek authorities, arrive on a fixed contract and leave after it ends. We should be looking for such workers — but safety must come first.”
A survey “Migration 2.0: Poland in the Global Race for Talent from Asia and Latin America” by EWL Group and the University of Warsaw’s Centre for East European Studies shows that immigrants from Asia and Latin America form a rapidly growing group in Poland.
- In 2019, nearly 55,000 work permits were issued to citizens of these regions.
- In 2023, the number exceeded 275,000 — a fivefold increase.
