According to the Polish Economic Institute, in 2025 the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation reached 29.4 percent, compared with 12.7 percent in 2018, while installed photovoltaic capacity increased 38-fold in less than seven years. At the same time, oil and gas consumption continues to play a significant role in Poland’s overall energy use. As emphasized by Jacek Kostrzewa, President of the National Energy Conservation Agency (KAPE), assessing the progress of the energy transition requires looking not only at its pace, but also at the balance between ambition and the economy’s real capabilities.
– “The pace of the energy transition in Poland is natural. You cannot simply decree that something will be built in a year, three years or ten years. Maybe it will, but many factors influence the process: legislative, financial and ideological ones. This time the ideological momentum has weakened somewhat, and as we can see on the market, economic considerations are gaining more weight. In my opinion, this is a healthy situation. Everything should be done reasonably and in a balanced manner so that it does not cause massive economic disruptions,” says Jacek Kostrzewa in an interview with Newseria.
An analysis by the Polish Economic Institute, based on data from Forum Energii and ARE, shows that while in 2018 renewable energy accounted for 12.7 percent of Poland’s electricity generation, in 2025 that figure reached 29.4 percent. The share of hard coal in the energy mix fell significantly (from nearly 50 percent to 32 percent), as did the share of lignite (from nearly 30 percent to 21 percent). Meanwhile, over the last seven years photovoltaic capacity increased 38-fold — from 600 MW at the end of 2018 to 23 GW in July 2025. The government’s “Energy Policy of Poland until 2040” had forecast 5 GW of capacity for that year.
On the other hand, the report *“Poland’s Energy Transition. 2025 Edition”* by Forum Energii shows that the structure of primary energy consumption in Poland remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Over the past 20 years, since Poland joined the EU, two opposing trends have emerged: coal consumption has fallen by 38 percent, while oil and gas consumption has increased by 41 percent and 43 percent respectively. As a result, the transition is progressing unevenly and in an uncoordinated manner, making it difficult to effectively reduce the economy’s emissions intensity.
According to the President of KAPE, maintaining the current pace of change requires new sources of financing — public funds alone are not sufficient to cover the scale of modernization needed in the energy and industrial sectors.
– “My theory is that we should not give gifts for several reasons. First, people don’t really appreciate them, and second, there simply isn’t enough public money — Polish or EU — to modernize the entire country. We need private capital involvement, what is known as blended finance. This allows different actors in the financial market to see a business case for funding the transition.” explains the head of the National Energy Conservation Agency.
Experts from Forum Energii point out that pressure to accelerate the energy transition is growing due to the need to reduce emissions, ensure energy security, and maintain economic competitiveness. Jacek Kostrzewa adds that investments in the energy sector have both economic and social dimensions.
“This will have multi-generational impact. The energy system is becoming increasingly decentralized: from a one-way system where electricity flowed from power plants and heat from heating plants to radiators, to a two-way, interconnected system. The power system will become integrated with the heating system, requiring a completely different approach and a new philosophy of energy management.”
One of the major successes of recent years has been Poland’s decoupling from Russian coal and fuel supplies and the diversification of import routes. Still, Poland continues to pay significant sums for imported energy resources. According to Forum Energii, since 2015 the country has spent approximately PLN 1.2 trillion on energy imports, including PLN 112 billion in 2024 alone. This highlights the enormous economic potential associated with modernizing the national energy system and reducing dependence on external suppliers. GUS data shows that between 2013 and 2023, Poland’s primary energy intensity fell by an average of 3.8 percent annually. Lower energy intensity means less primary energy is used per unit of GDP, usually indicating improved energy efficiency.
“These investments lead to the implementation of innovations and modern technologies that are far different from what we had 50 or even 30 years ago. This will contribute to overall technological and civilizational progress,” the expert notes.
In many energy-intensive sectors, improving efficiency has become a natural part of companies’ development strategies. One example is the glass industry, which — as Kostrzewa points out — introduced energy-saving solutions a decade ago, even before they were mandated by EU regulations.
The energy transition is both an investment and technological challenge, and a key element of national security. Reducing imports of raw materials, developing decentralized energy sources and increasing system flexibility all help strengthen the country’s resilience to energy crises and geopolitical threats.
“The less we import, the lower our vulnerability to hybrid warfare. Moreover, as the system becomes more decentralized, its destruction becomes more difficult, while its continued operation becomes more feasible even if a high-voltage line is damaged. And if we reduce consumption, at least basic local needs can be met using renewable sources,” emphasizes the President of the National Energy Conservation Agency.
