Following recent statements by Professor Adam Glapiński, Chairman of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), economists anticipate that the first interest rate cut in over 18 months may take place during the Council’s meeting on May 7. The move would align Poland with the monetary policy trends of other central banks and reflect weakening inflationary pressure. According to the President of Q Value, while the decision would be a step in the right direction, it is delayed and likely politically motivated.
“I expect a swift interest rate cut in Poland. Despite the National Bank of Poland (NBP), the Monetary Policy Council, and Professor Glapiński maintaining a hawkish stance in recent quarters, their rhetoric shifted significantly following the last RPP meeting – from hawkish to very dovish,” said Michał Stanek, President of Q Value, in an interview with Newseria. “In my view, we will see the first cut before the presidential elections – possibly as soon as the upcoming meeting – and I estimate it will be the beginning of a cycle of cuts, with the first likely amounting to 50 basis points.”
Poland’s interest rates have remained unchanged since the autumn of 2023. Back then, the RPP reduced them twice, in September and October, by a total of 100 basis points (1 percentage point). These cuts, occurring just ahead of the October 15 parliamentary elections, were widely seen as politically driven, particularly the aggressive 75-basis-point reduction in September.
In the following months, the Council maintained rates despite falling inflation, slower wage growth, weak industrial data, and ambiguous consumption trends. The reference rate stood at 5.75% in October 2023, when inflation was 6.6%; it remained unchanged in March 2024, when inflation had dropped to 2.0%; and continued unchanged in Q1 2025, when inflation stabilized at 4.9%.
“Economic fundamentals support rapid rate cuts. I believe they should have happened earlier. The RPP waited too long,” said Stanek. “What changed is the political context – with upcoming presidential elections and recent comments from the right-wing candidate, Mr. Nawrocki, who called for rate cuts to lower borrowing costs. Coincidentally, Glapiński and the RPP shifted their tone to dovish and hinted at planned cuts. That’s why I believe the first in a series of cuts will occur before the presidential election.”
In April, NBP President Glapiński confirmed that the RPP had once again decided to keep rates unchanged but noted a more dovish stance. He attributed this to a revision in the inflation basket by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), which happens annually in March. This led to a revision of the January inflation figure from 5.3% to 4.9%. Inflation for Q1 was half a percentage point lower than the NBP had projected in its March report. Additionally, wage growth in enterprises with more than nine employees – which had remained in double digits for nearly three years – fell below 10% in December 2024 and continued to disappoint expectations. In March 2025, wages grew by 7.7% year-on-year, reaching 9,055.92 PLN.
Experts point out that keeping rates unchanged has caused a divergence between Polish interest rates and those in the eurozone and the U.S. Both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve began cutting rates in 2024 – the ECB in April, the Fed in August. Although the Fed paused further cuts since December, this is largely due to political uncertainty under President Donald Trump. Markets still expect the Fed to lower rates by another percentage point by the end of the year, implying four more 25-basis-point cuts.
“We are one of the last economies to take this step. Just as we were late in raising rates, we’re now going to be the last to lower them,” said Stanek. “In the coming months, we’re likely to see more cuts in Poland as we catch up with the global trend. I expect significantly lower interest rates next year, which will translate to cheaper loans.”
