For years, Poland has impressed the world with its dynamic growth, often cited as a model of successful transformation—and occasionally even described as an economic miracle. This success is not a matter of chance, but the result of consistent effort by millions of individuals, businesses, and institutions. In its latest report titled “Poland’s Time: How It Grew Richer and Evolved into a Resilient Knowledge-Based Economy”, Bank Pekao’s experts summarize Poland’s achievements to date and lay out ambitious goals for the next decade.
Poland’s Economic Success: From Transformation to European Leadership
Over the past few decades, Poland has undergone rapid modernization. In just the last 10 years, its GDP has grown by more than one-third—one of the fastest rates among EU countries. During that same period, Poland narrowed the gap in GDP per capita relative to the EU average by 9 percentage points. On the international stage, Poland continues to expand its share of global exports in both goods and services.
The value of goods exported has roughly doubled, while service exports have nearly tripled. As household incomes have risen rapidly, Poland has emerged not only as a competitive production base but also as an increasingly significant consumer market. In fact, the pace of private consumption growth in Poland has been the fastest among the EU’s top 10 economies. By the end of this year, Poland is expected to overtake the Netherlands in nominal consumption value, entering the EU’s top five.
The effects of a knowledge-based economy are also becoming more visible. Knowledge-intensive services are the fastest-growing sector, and Poland is leading the region in expanding R&D activities and climbing innovation rankings within the EU.
“The key drivers of Poland’s economic success have been its competitive advantages: low labor costs coupled with rising quality and productivity, a central location in Europe, ongoing infrastructure development, and political and economic stability. These strengths have been reinforced by the protective mechanisms of the EU’s single market, where Poland plays an increasingly important role,” explains Dr. Ernest Pytlarczyk, Chief Economist at Bank Pekao S.A.
“The outcome has been a sustained inflow of foreign capital, strong integration into regional supply chains, a resilient domestic market, and growing international presence of Polish companies,” he adds.
Investment: The Key to the Next Phase of Growth
The report notes that Poland stands on the brink of a major shift, especially in the area of investment—an area that in recent years has been overshadowed by booming consumption and exports. According to projections, total investment in the Polish economy could reach 1 trillion PLN by 2030. This growth is expected to be fueled by large-scale transformation programs, particularly in:
- green energy transition,
- military and energy security,
- transport infrastructure (including CPK and high-speed rail),
- energy efficiency,
- digitalization, and
- circular economy initiatives.
“The acceleration of infrastructure investment is driven by large, strategically significant projects. These will spur development across many sectors and are essential for building a modern state and economy. They will also serve as a foundation for the next, more challenging phases of transformation,” says Krzysztof Mrówczyński, sector analysis manager and co-author of the report.
Ambitious Socioeconomic Goals for 2035
The vision for Poland in 2035 is optimistic: a wealthier, more technologically advanced, and better-connected country.
“We project that Poland’s GDP per capita could surpass that of Italy by then, with investment reaching 25% of GDP. The quality of life in Poland will improve—life expectancy will rise by five years, wages will reach 80% of the EU average, and the housing supply gap will be closed,” says Dr. Piotr Bartkiewicz, co-author of the report.
Equally important will be structural economic changes—such as a higher share of high-tech industry and knowledge-based services. Poland is expected to increase R&D spending to 2.5% of GDP, while communication and energy infrastructure should meet full Western European standards. Around 60% of electricity consumed in Poland is projected to come from renewable sources. While these goals are ambitious, the authors consider them realistic—assuming the continuation of current trends, a comprehensive transformation effort, and a relatively stable global environment.
Poland’s Future Industries: Powered by Innovation and Modernization
The report identifies industries that are poised to drive future growth and shape a modern Polish economy. This includes traditional export strengths such as the food, furniture, and plastics industries, where Polish firms are encouraged to move up the value chain and into premium segments.
Additionally, sectors with currently lower global standing—but high potential due to favorable demand trends—are expected to thrive. These include:
- IT and software,
- defense manufacturing,
- pharmaceuticals, and
- other transport equipment.
Emerging fields with global growth prospects are also highlighted, such as:
- components for renewable energy and electromobility,
- space industry, and
- semiconductor production.
These sectors could significantly boost Poland’s value-added output and global competitiveness in the years ahead.
A Roadmap for the Decade Ahead
The “Poland’s Time” report is not just a celebration of achievements, but a strategic roadmap for the next decade of economic, technological, and social transformation. Poland is on the threshold of a new era—one where investment, innovation, and sustainable development will form the pillars of long-term success.
Source: CEO.com.pl – Poland is Not Catching Up Anymore—It Sets the Pace
