According to preliminary BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl figures, the second quarter of 2026 brought a cooling in demand for new homes after a very strong start to the year. At the same time, developers limited the launch of new projects. As a result, for the second consecutive quarter, more apartments were sold than were introduced to the market. This has not, however, translated into higher prices, which remained stable in most metropolitan areas.
“Following the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, sentiment began to deteriorate among both buyers of new homes and developers who had been expecting a gradual market recovery. Caution increased with each passing month. Mortgage loans became more expensive, some potential buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach, and weaker sales results prompted developers to reduce the number of new projects,” says Marek Wielgo, an expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
Sales Weaken After a Very Strong Start to the Year
According to preliminary BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl data, developers operating in Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, the Tri-City area, Łódź, Poznań and the cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis sold a total of around 11,900 apartments in the second quarter of 2026.
This was nearly 20% lower than in the first quarter, but still just under 1% higher than a year earlier. Sales were also less than 4% below the average quarterly result recorded in 2025.
Quarter-on-quarter sales declined in all of the metropolitan areas analysed. The sharpest falls were recorded in Łódź, down 28%, the Tri-City area, down 25%, and Wrocław, down 24%. In Warsaw, the number of apartments sold fell by 21%, while sales declined by 16% in Poznań and by 11% in Kraków. The Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis saw the mildest cooling in demand, with sales down 8% compared with the first quarter.
The picture was considerably better compared with the same period of the previous year. Kraków recorded the strongest increase in sales, up 17%, while Łódź, up 9%, and Warsaw, up 7%, also posted positive growth. The weakest result was reported in the Tri-City area, where sales were 21% lower than a year earlier.
Compared with the average quarterly sales level in 2025, Kraków and Warsaw stood out in particular. Sales in Kraków were nearly 5% above last year’s average, while in Warsaw they were almost 2% higher. By contrast, the Tri-City area, down 21%, Poznań, down 9%, and Wrocław, down 6%, remained clearly below their 2025 averages.
Developers Reduce New Project Launches
The supply side changed much more significantly. According to preliminary data, developers in the seven largest metropolitan areas introduced fewer than 9,900 apartments for sale, down 16% from the first quarter and as much as 28% from a year earlier. This was also 24% below the average quarterly level recorded in 2025.
This means that new supply was lower than sales for the second consecutive quarter. In the second quarter, the difference amounted to nearly 2,000 apartments. The market has therefore begun gradually absorbing the surplus of homes accumulated earlier by developers.
Kraków provided the most striking example of developers limiting new projects. Only 690 apartments were introduced to the market there, down 72% quarter on quarter and 65% year on year. At the same time, sales remained above the level recorded a year earlier, demonstrating how cautiously developers are approaching the launch of new investments.
New supply was also significantly lower than a year earlier in Wrocław and the Tri-City area, down 52% and 42%, respectively. Declines were also recorded in the cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, down 32%, and in Poznań, down 14%.
Warsaw and Łódź stood out against this backdrop. In the capital, the number of apartments introduced for sale was 8% higher than a year earlier, while in Łódź it was up as much as 27%. Warsaw also remained the only metropolitan area in which new supply stayed close to the average quarterly level recorded in 2025.
Buyers Still Have a Wide Choice
Despite sales exceeding new supply, the number of apartments available remains very high. Preliminary BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl data show that at the end of June, developers had around 17,000 apartments for sale in Warsaw, 11,500 in Kraków, nearly 11,500 in Łódź, 11,200 in the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, 9,900 in Wrocław, more than 9,000 in the Tri-City area and 7,900 in Poznań.
This means that buyers can still choose from a very broad range of properties. The reduction in new supply has not yet led to a clear decline in the number of available apartments. In addition, some buyers withdrew from purchases during the period, with those apartments returning to developers’ sales offers.
The scale of supply is reflected not only in the overall size of developers’ offers, but also in the growing share of completed homes. At the end of June, ready-to-move-in apartments accounted for around 24% of the total offer across the seven largest housing markets. Three years ago, their share generally ranged from 12% to 14%.
This means that developers currently hold a record stock of completed apartments awaiting buyers. The trend is most visible in Poznań, where ready apartments already account for nearly one-third of the entire offer. A high share of completed homes is also seen in Łódź, Wrocław, Kraków, Katowice and Warsaw. Only in Gdańsk is the proportion clearly below the average for the seven metropolitan areas.
“From the perspective of buyers, this is a very comfortable situation. Completed homes can be viewed before purchase, taken over more quickly and prepared for occupancy or rental sooner. For developers, however, they represent tied-up capital, which is why ready-to-move-in apartments are often the subject of the most attractive promotions and price negotiations,” comments Marek Wielgo.
“The high share of completed apartments also helps explain why, despite the decline in the number of new projects, there is currently no visible pressure for prices to rise. Even if the offer has started to stabilise, developers still have to compete for customers with a large number of finished homes available immediately,” adds Jan Dziekoński, Chief Economist at RynekPierwotny.pl.
Record Supply Continues to Limit Price Growth
The second quarter was marked by stabilisation in average apartment prices per square metre. According to preliminary BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl data, changes were small in most metropolitan areas, and any increases were mainly caused by changes in the price structure of available listings rather than widespread price-list increases.
Warsaw remains the most expensive metropolitan area, with the average price of a new apartment reaching nearly PLN 19,900 per square metre at the end of June. This was around 10% higher than a year earlier. The Tri-City area ranked next, at PLN 17,800 per square metre, followed by Kraków at PLN 17,100.
In Kraków, the average price per square metre was only around 2% higher than a year earlier. In Wrocław, the increase amounted to around 4%, while in the Tri-City area and Poznań it was about 6%. In Łódź and the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, the average price was 2% lower than a year earlier.
Warsaw therefore remains an exception among the major metropolitan markets. It is also the only area where apartment sales in the second quarter were higher both than the 2025 quarterly average and than the result recorded a year earlier. This was primarily due to the appearance of new projects in the highest price segment, which pushed the average price per square metre close to PLN 20,000.
“This does not mean that most buyers are paying that amount,” Jan Dziekoński stresses.
In the mainstream segment, the average price of apartments has remained at around PLN 17,000 per square metre for two years and has barely changed. This is the segment that dominates Warsaw developers’ offer and serves the majority of their customers. By contrast, average prices in the premium segment have increased by 37% over the past two years, from around PLN 31,000 to PLN 42,000 per square metre.
Dziekoński also points to the estimated time needed to sell all apartments currently available from developers, which serves as a measure of how heated a market is. In Warsaw, this indicator stood at 4.4 quarters at the end of June, the lowest among the seven metropolitan areas.
A level of four quarters is considered the boundary of market equilibrium, while eight quarters indicate an oversupply of apartments. Such a situation is currently visible in Łódź and Katowice, where the estimated sales period was around 10 quarters.
In Poznań, the indicator exceeded seven quarters, while in Kraków, Wrocław and the Tri-City area it stood at around 6.5 quarters. This means that although the supply surplus is gradually shrinking, competition among developers remains very strong. That limits the scope for more substantial apartment price increases.
Outlook for the Second Half of the Year
The market is likely to return to stronger sales activity only in the fourth quarter of 2026. However, this is not expected to be a boom, but rather a gradual return to the sales levels seen at the beginning of the year.
As noted earlier, the cooling observed in the second quarter was largely driven by weaker sentiment following the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East. These tensions are expected to ease gradually.
“I would treat the third quarter as a transition period during which the market will rebuild buyers’ confidence. Only in late autumn can we expect a revival, although it is likely to remain within the range seen in January and February this year, rather than the dynamic growth recorded in March,” says Jan Dziekoński.
No major change in the cost of financing a home purchase should be expected either. Interest rates are likely to remain unchanged until the end of the year, at 3.75%. Mortgage costs themselves should fall as bond yields and IRS rates decline, as well as because of competition between banks. However, a rapid return to the levels seen in February 2026, when lending conditions were the most favourable in a long time, is unlikely.
For some potential buyers, this will mean further postponing purchasing decisions, particularly as they still have a wide selection of apartments to choose from.
Developers’ reduction in the number of new projects, already visible over the past two years, is also likely to continue in the second half of the year. Higher construction costs linked to the conflict in the Gulf are encouraging companies to be more selective when launching projects.
For now, however, this is unlikely to translate into higher apartment prices. With a record share of completed homes in the offer and still-high estimated sales periods in most metropolitan areas, developers will continue to compete for buyers rather than raise price lists.
It can therefore be assumed that apartment prices will remain stagnant in the second half of the year. Any increase in average prices, as in Warsaw, is likely to result from changes in the structure of the available offer rather than genuine across-the-board price rises.
