Poland remains one of the fastest-growing economies in the European Union, but maintaining that pace will require significantly higher investment and sufficient financing. Poland’s investment needs could reach as much as PLN 4 trillion by 2040, while the current annual investment gap is estimated at around PLN 170 billion. The banking sector has the potential to increase financing to the economy by almost PLN 508 billion, according to the 13th edition of the Polish Bank Association’s report ‘Poland and Europe: Investment, Security, Future’.
Poland has recorded 35 years of rapid economic development and is now among the world’s 20 largest economies. The model behind that progress is gradually losing momentum, however, as cost advantages decline, the population ages and competitiveness increasingly depends on technology, innovation, security and the ability to mobilise capital.
‘Poland has reached a point where further development will require a substantial increase in investment. The energy transition, infrastructure, digitalisation, new technologies, defence and security all require financing measured in trillions of zlotys. Poland’s total investment needs to 2040 can be estimated at around PLN 4 trillion, while the current investment gap is roughly PLN 170 billion a year,’ says Dr Tadeusz Białek, president of the Polish Bank Association.
The European Commission forecasts real GDP growth in Poland of 3.5% in 2026, compared with 1.1% for the EU as a whole and 0.9% for the euro area. Only Malta is expected to grow faster among EU member states. In the second quarter of 2026, Poland’s economy expanded by around 3.7% year on year, compared with 1.2% in the EU and 1.0% in the euro area.
Investment needs are measured in trillions
Poland’s investment rate stood at 17.1% of GDP in 2025, compared with 21.3% in the EU. At the same time, investment spending in Poland rose 4.4% year on year, and the European Commission expects investment growth of 6.9% in 2026, against 2.2% in the EU.
The report argues that a shortage of capital is not the main problem. More significant obstacles include regulatory uncertainty, the predictability of economic policy, companies’ limited willingness to take investment risk and the quality of project preparation.
Banks have PLN 508 billion in additional capacity
Poland’s banking sector remains one of the smallest in the EU relative to the size of the economy. In mid-2026, bank assets totalled PLN 3.53 trillion, equivalent to 87.4% of GDP, placing Poland 24th among the EU’s 27 member states on this measure.
At the same time, banks have a large and stable deposit base and strong liquidity. At the end of June 2026, non-financial-sector deposits totalled PLN 2.23 trillion, up 11.7% year on year. Loans to the sector increased 8.9% to PLN 1.35 trillion.
The Polish Bank Association’s research team estimates that the sector has around PLN 508 billion in additional lending capacity. That is more than 36% of the current loan portfolio for the non-financial sector and local governments.
The loan-to-deposit ratio also illustrates the potential. In the second quarter of 2026 it stood at around 57.7% in Poland, compared with an EU-27 average of 106.1%, according to European Central Bank data. If Poland reached the EU average, the loan portfolio would theoretically be around PLN 1.08 trillion larger.
Capital is needed to finance development
The ability to use that potential also depends on banks’ capacity to build equity. In the first quarter of 2026, banking-sector equity was equivalent to 8.25% of GDP, compared with an EU-27 average of 16.9%. Poland ranked 25th in the bloc on this measure, with the gap versus the EU average equivalent to roughly PLN 346 billion in capital.
Current capital levels are adequate for the present scale of the sector, but financing major infrastructure and energy projects will require further strengthening. The Polish Bank Association argues that the sector’s ability to retain profits is being constrained by growing fiscal burdens.
In 2026, the corporate income tax rate for banks was increased from 19% to 30%. In the first half of the year, the sector paid a combined PLN 15.8 billion in corporate income tax and the tax on certain financial institutions, 38.6% more than a year earlier.
The Association projects that banking-sector net profit could decline from PLN 49.1 billion in 2025 to around PLN 38.2 billion in 2026. The higher CIT rate alone could reduce profits by about PLN 8.9 billion.
‘It is difficult to expect banks to finance the largest wave of investment since the beginning of the transformation while systematically reducing the sources from which they build capital. The more of the sector’s earnings are absorbed by additional fiscal burdens, the less can be retained as own funds and used to expand lending capacity,’ Białek says.
According to the Association’s forecast, direct budget revenues linked to the banking sector — including corporate income tax, the bank tax, dividends and employees’ personal income tax — could reach PLN 37.1 billion in 2026.
