Poland is entering the operational phase of offshore wind development, with the first turbines already standing in the Baltic Sea, according to the Polish Wind Energy Association (PSEW). Electricity is expected to start flowing from them next year. However, there is growing discussion about a slowdown in the offshore sector’s growth dynamics, not only in Poland but across Europe, influenced by rising costs that determine project profitability. Investors are also waiting for a clear signal regarding the future direction of this renewable energy segment.
“The slowdown in offshore renewable energy investment is mainly due to rising prices. Several factors are contributing to delays: first, these are high-risk, highly capital-intensive projects. Preparing and delivering such a project takes 10–12 years. Today’s slowdown is caused by price increases, inflation, supply chain gaps—since so many projects are underway, the supply chain has not yet been fully built. There are also technological bottlenecks because we’ve seen a leap in technology: moving from 8–10 MW turbines to 15 MW, and even larger ones in the coming years. These are the main causes of delays,” says Maciej Olczak, CEO of Enmaro, a service provider for the offshore industry, in an interview with Newseria.
According to the report “Wind Energy in Poland 2025”, Poland has significant potential in the Baltic Sea, estimated at 33 GW of total installed capacity. This places the country among Europe’s most attractive offshore markets, alongside Denmark and Germany. Utilizing this potential could cover nearly 60% of the nation’s energy demand.
Analysts from the report “Polish Strategy for Offshore Wind Industry Development”—prepared by the Wind Industry Hub Foundation, PSEW, and CEE Energy Group—emphasize that building an offshore wind farm is a massive multidisciplinary undertaking that requires collaboration across many sectors, including marine engineering, logistics, and energy technologies. They also note that a key challenge for Poland’s supply chain is the lack of domestic Tier 1 suppliers.
“We need to consider whether we are at a turning point in the energy transition, where some projects might not be realized at all,” warns Olczak.
Examples can already be seen in Europe, where auctions for offshore wind farms have been delayed or canceled in Denmark and Lithuania. In the United States, investors are held back by uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s energy policy.
“We see major investors like Ørsted, RWE, and oil companies such as bp and Shell abandoning some projects in favor of others. There’s a degree of selectiveness, a tug-of-war in the market over whether oil and gas will continue to dominate or whether renewable energy—particularly offshore wind—will prevail,” adds the Enmaro CEO.
In Poland, projects with a combined capacity of around 18 GW are currently under development, including 5.9 GW in the so-called Phase I projects, many of which are entering the operational stage. Additional areas in the Baltic Sea are also planned for future investment. Industry experts stress the need for strong regulatory support for the offshore market. During a July debate organized by the SET Foundation, they highlighted the significant technological, organizational, and financial challenges facing the sector. They pointed out the urgent need for quick decisions, infrastructure investments, and support for the domestic industry. Polish offshore companies require better access to knowledge, partnerships, and tools that can enhance their competitiveness.
“This is an opportunity for Poland to leverage domestic entrepreneurs, know-how, technology, shipyards, vessels, and the Polish flag, building long-term potential and capital, and then bringing this expertise to international projects,” says Olczak. “Poland should pursue the projects already in the construction pipeline, because offshore wind should have a share in the energy mix. It doesn’t need to be very large, but around 10% would be appropriate. These projects will remain for decades.”
A critical moment for the sector’s future will come with the planned December auction for offshore wind farms.
“This will be another milestone in developing investments in the Baltic Sea. Today, 5.9 GW of capacity has been contracted under CfD agreements, and another 4 GW is planned for this year. This is an absolutely critical decision, as it will determine whether additional gigawatts of offshore wind capacity are added. I believe this decision will also show whether the Polish government continues to support the implementation of its energy transition plans,” Olczak concludes.
