Poland has the industrial potential to become much more self-sufficient in basic military equipment, but the main constraint is no longer simply access to funding. Industry representatives and experts quoted by Newseria argue that companies need a multi-year state strategy showing what the armed forces will require, in what volumes and over what period.
Such visibility would allow both state-owned and private manufacturers to make investment decisions with greater confidence. Defence production requires expensive capacity, specialist workers and long procurement cycles, which makes predictable orders particularly important when companies are expected to expand output rapidly.
Production capacity must be scalable
Experts also point to a gap between peacetime production and the ability to increase output during a security crisis. Poland has strengthened its defence industry and sharply increased military spending, but domestic factories are not yet able to scale every category of equipment and ammunition quickly enough to cover the requirements of a prolonged conflict.
The government has already announced major investments in ammunition production. Plans presented in 2025 included three new ammunition plants by the end of 2028 and a target of around 200,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition annually as domestic capacity is expanded.
Domestic demand should also build export capacity
A long-term procurement policy could do more than improve security of supply. Stable domestic orders can help manufacturers finance new production lines, lower unit costs and develop products that can later compete on export markets. That is particularly important for private companies, which need a clearer view of future procurement before committing significant capital.
The challenge for Poland is therefore to connect rising defence expenditure with industrial policy. Without a predictable pipeline of orders and clearly defined priorities, higher budgets may increase purchases without producing a proportional increase in domestic manufacturing capacity or technological independence.
