Poland is rapidly becoming one of the world’s most significant gold buyers. According to the latest data from the World Gold Council, by the second quarter of 2025 Poland had already climbed to 10th place globally in terms of gold reserves — overtaking even the European Central Bank. At the same time, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) has decided to strategically raise the share of gold to 30% of total state reserves, placing Poland among a very small group of countries with exceptionally strong monetary resilience. In just a few days — at the beginning of November — we will find out whether the NBP has made another gold purchase.
Will the target be achieved before year-end? And is 30% a necessary safeguard — or an overextension?
When Global Security Falters — Gold Returns as the Foundation of the State
The National Bank of Poland currently holds over 520 tonnes of gold, valued at more than PLN 240 billion, representing roughly 25% of total official reserve assets. This is the result of a multi-year strategic shift that has fundamentally altered the structure of Poland’s foreign reserves. Poland has joined the group of countries intentionally moving away from reserves dominated by Western currencies and government bonds.
It is a response to a new world — one where central banks must now plan for what was once considered political fiction: a global recession, the expansion of war beyond Ukraine, disruption of payment systems, or sanctions weaponised as political tools.
This decision clearly reflects Poland’s increasingly tense geopolitical environment. While military analysts stress that a direct attack by Russia remains unlikely in the near term, such scenarios are now actively war-gamed — as seen in recent remarks by Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski following drone incursions into Polish airspace, notes Tomasz Gessner, Chief Analyst at Tavex.
Poland’s 30% gold strategy is not symbolism — it is cold financial strategy.
It stems from the recognition that national financial security — especially for a NATO frontline economy — must rest on hard, sanction-proof assets. Unlike the dollar, euro or sovereign debt, gold is not anyone’s liability. It cannot be frozen, cancelled or defaulted by a foreign government.
Poland is now just 5 percentage points away from its target.
Ambitious — or Fully Justified?
In terms of total gold held, Poland is now 10th in the world among central banks — ahead of the European Central Bank, according to WGC Q2 2025 data. Once the 30% threshold is reached, Poland’s gold share will exceed that of most developed economies.
For comparison:
- Russia holds around 30% of its reserves in gold
- Turkey more than 43%
- USA and Germany lead globally with 75% and 77% respectively
Portfolio studies conducted by Bank of America show that states with around 30% of reserves in gold historically achieved the highest real crisis resilience — preserving national wealth during wars, currency collapses and systemic disruptions. In light of escalating global risks — from the South China Sea to the Middle East — this figure is no longer theoretical economics, but a new standard of national financial defence.
According to the latest Goldman Sachs analysis, central banks are now undergoing a structural revolution in reserve management. After Russia’s reserves were frozen in 2022, many governments realised that insufficient diversification could cost them control of their own financial sovereignty. Goldman forecasts that central banks will continue buying gold for at least the next three years — with gold prices likely to continue rising.
The world has entered a phase of building reserves immune to political pressure. Gold is now at the centre of that shift.
A Strategic Necessity — Not Speculation
World Gold Council data shows that in the first half of 2025 Poland was the world’s largest central bank gold buyer. Importantly, these purchases occurred at record-high gold prices — signalling clearly that this is not speculation, but a long-term security policy.
Each additional tonne serves as a message to markets and investors: Poland will not allow its reserves to erode, nor its financial credibility to weaken.
Global tensions are already causing markets to price in higher risk around Poland. In recent months, Fitch and Moody’s have both downgraded their outlook for Poland. This is the financial equivalent of a bank saying:
“You’re managing fine for now — but we see rising risk ahead.”
Rising national debt and the proximity of war mean that Poland is more expensive to finance on international markets. The higher that risk premium — the more Poland pays for defence and infrastructure financing. In this context, gold becomes a true “hard currency” — unlike sovereign bonds, it carries zero counterparty risk, notes Gessner.
The Coming Days Will Be Pivotal
The NBP will publish its October 2025 figures in just a few days — revealing whether further gold purchases were made. This will determine the speed at which Poland is closing in on its historic 30% goal.
If the NBP maintains its current buying pace, Poland may reach the target even sooner than expected.
This could mark a turning point — officially establishing Poland as one of the most financially resilient states in the region, with a reserve structure aligned with the realities of the 21st century.
