The share of employees in Poland expecting a pay rise is falling, while the group assuming no change in wages is growing, according to the “Labour Market Barometer 2026” by Gi Group Holding. Employers’ declarations for the next quarter remain similar to last year: 52.4% of companies plan to maintain current salary levels, 29.4% intend to introduce pay rises, and 3.5% are considering wage cuts. More often than last year, companies say that the motivation for increasing wages is a desire to recognise employees.
Expectations remain high, but are weakening year by year
Employees’ pay expectations remain high, although they have been weakening for another consecutive year. The share of workers expecting a pay rise is declining, while the group assuming no change in wages is growing.
In the coming months, 53.4% of employees expect a pay rise. This is 2.6 percentage points less than a year ago, 6.2 percentage points less than two years ago and 8.1 percentage points less than three years ago. At the same time, the share of people expecting their wages to remain unchanged has increased slightly, from around 33% to 35%. In 2024 it stood at 30.7%, and in 2023 at 26.2%.
Pay rises are expected mainly by employees aged 45–54 (60.9%), managers and senior specialists (59% each), transport and logistics workers (59.8%) and retail employees (56.3%). Women expect increases more often than men, at nearly 60% compared with 47.5%. The highest relative pay expectations are among people earning PLN 5,000–9,999 net per month, where 56–57% expect a rise. Pay increases are least expected by people aged 55+ (40%), transport and logistics employees (43%), lower-level workers (42.4%) and those earning more than PLN 10,000 net per month (41%).
Expectations regarding the size of pay rises are also changing. In this year’s survey, 37.5% of respondents expect an increase of 11–20%, compared with 44% a year earlier. At the same time, employees are slightly more likely than in 2025 to expect an increase of up to 10% — around 30% of employees, compared with 26% a year earlier. Higher pay rises are expected particularly by employees aged 18–24, with more than 43% of them expecting an increase of at least 20%, as well as transport and logistics workers, at 44%, and people earning more than PLN 10,000 net per month.
“There is a visible gradual moderation of pay expectations, which may result from the scale of previous increases and from employees taking a more realistic view of market conditions, recognising the impact of economic uncertainty on companies’ condition. The differences in expectations depending on industry, age or gender show the complexity of the current labour market situation. The attitude of women is noteworthy, as they more often than men expect pay rises, which may be linked to EU regulations aimed at reducing the gender pay gap,” said Anna Wesołowska, Managing Director at Gi Group.
Higher chances of pay rises in medium-sized and large companies, the public sector, transport and logistics
Employers’ declarations regarding pay plans for the next quarter are close to last year’s. A total of 52.4% of companies intend to keep wages unchanged, 29.4% plan pay rises, compared with 28.2% in 2025, and 3.5% are considering reductions, compared with 4.5% a year earlier.
According to the “Labour Market Barometer 2026” by Gi Group Holding, pay rises are most often planned by medium-sized and large companies, at 31.2%. In both cases, there is a clear increase in such declarations compared with last year, when around one quarter of companies of this size planned wage increases. The situation is different among small companies, where the share of employers planning pay rises fell by 7 percentage points, from nearly 33% to less than 26%.
A change is also visible by sector. In 2026, pay rise plans are more often signalled by companies from the public sector and transport and logistics, at 31.8% each. This is a significant difference compared with 2025, when these sectors were among the most cautious and only 24% of them planned increases. Significantly fewer companies in retail now expect wages to rise — 20.5%, compared with nearly 33% a year earlier.
“Data on companies’ pay plans for the next quarter indicate that a cautious approach to remuneration policy is being maintained. However, it is worth noting differences depending on company size. In medium-sized and large enterprises, the share of entities planning pay rises has clearly increased, while in small companies it has fallen significantly,” said Agnieszka Żak, Key Account Director at Gi Group.
What is driving wage increases?
As last year, the most important factor behind pay rises remains the increase in the minimum wage, indicated by 68.3% of employers, compared with 64.5% a year earlier. Inflation remains the second major reason, cited by 42.3% of companies, up 4.2 percentage points year on year.
A desire to recognise employees is mentioned more often than last year. This year, 39.2% of companies gave this as a motivation for pay rises, compared with 30.2% a year earlier. The change is particularly visible in large organisations, where 46% cited this reason, 23 percentage points more than last year. Financial recognition has also gained importance as a reason for increasing wages in retail, at 55%, up 20 percentage points, and in industry, at 43%, up 14 percentage points.
More than 28% of companies are raising pay to reduce employee turnover, compared with 26.4% last year. This motivation is more often indicated by smaller companies, and it has gained particular importance in services, where it was cited by 38% of firms, up 7 percentage points year on year. It is less frequently mentioned by industrial companies, at 20% compared with 32% last year. Nearly one in five companies says it is increasing wages to adjust them to market levels, at 19.4%. This is more common among medium-sized and large organisations and, as last year, among service companies.
“This year’s survey results show that although decisions on pay rises are still most strongly influenced by external factors such as the minimum wage and inflation, motivations related to recognising employees and counteracting turnover are gaining importance. This is an important change, showing not only an understanding of employees’ expectations, but also of their motivations. For employees, financial issues remain the most important factors in career decisions,” said Ewa Michalska, Operations Director at Grafton Recruitment.
Wage changes in the last quarter
Data from Gi Group Holding’s “Labour Market Barometer 2026” indicate a slowdown in wage growth. This is reflected in the views of both companies and employees: although wages continued to rise, they did so more slowly and on a more limited scale than in previous years.
Companies maintained a similar pay policy to last year. In the last quarter, 31% of firms raised wages, compared with 31.8% a year earlier, 55.9% kept them unchanged, compared with 56.3% last year, and 5.3% reduced wages, compared with 5.1% a year earlier.
Employees see the situation slightly differently. According to the survey, the share of people whose wages increased fell by 4.5 percentage points, from 38.9% to 34.6%. At the same time, most pay rises were 10% or less, accounting for 62.1% of increases, compared with 57.9% a year earlier. The share of people whose wages remained unchanged rose by more than 5 percentage points, from 47.6% to 52.8%. A total of 13.5% reported a decrease in pay, compared with 12.6% last year.
Who earned more, and who earned less?
Wage increases in the last quarter were most often reported by the youngest employees aged 18–24, at 44%, and least often by those aged 45–54, at 23.6%, and 55–67, at 25.6%. Pay rises were more frequently received by junior specialists, at 42.6%, and least often by lower-level workers, at 28.3%, and senior specialists, at 30.3%. Wage decreases were more often reported by manual workers, at 15.1%, and lower-level employees, at 14.1%.
Pay rises were more frequently introduced by companies in transport and logistics, at 41.4%, and retail, at 39.3%. Wage growth was reported less often in services, at 31.3%, and the public sector, at 31.7%, where employees were also more likely than in other industries to report no change in wages, at 56.4% and 57.3%, respectively.
The highest share of people whose wages increased was recorded in the Mazowieckie province, at nearly 38%. The lowest shares were recorded in Pomorskie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie provinces, at 31%.
About the report
The “Labour Market Barometer 2026” is the 20th edition of the report, which has been prepared since 2014. It was developed by Gi Group Holding experts based on research conducted by market and opinion research agency SW Research. The employer survey was carried out using the CATI method between 25 February and 9 March 2026, while the employee survey was conducted using the CAWI method between 23 February and 3 March 2026.
The report’s partners are the Federation of Polish Entrepreneurs, the Polish HR Forum and the Lewiatan Confederation.
