From January to the end of September 2025, as many as 5,215 Polish companies declared insolvency, according to data from Coface. This represents a 17% increase compared to the same period in 2024, and a 39% jump compared to just the first half of 2025. Analysts note that the rise is driven not only by economic pressures, but also by growing legal awareness among entrepreneurs — in the third quarter alone, 94% of affected firms opted for restructuring proceedings rather than liquidation.
Despite positive macroeconomic forecasts, geopolitical uncertainty and the weak condition of Germany — Poland’s largest trading partner — remain significant risks.
Polish economy gains momentum — but insolvency numbers keep rising
In the first quarter of 2025, Poland’s economic conditions remained favourable. In Q2, GDP grew by 3.4% year-on-year — the fastest pace in the European Union. Industrial production also rose 7.4% year-on-year. Although businesses are still affected by high interest rates and external headwinds, their overall situation is gradually improving.
Why, then, are insolvency numbers growing — and which sectors are being hit the hardest?
Restructuring over liquidation
Coface data shows a clear shift in strategy among Polish companies, many of which are choosing restructuring tools to survive turbulent times.
A remarkable 94% of all insolvency cases involved restructuring proceedings, which allow for negotiated settlements with creditors and give firms a “second chance” to continue operations.
Only 6% opted for liquidation through bankruptcy proceedings — a move that results in the sale of assets and effective closure of the business.
Services under pressure, construction still the biggest risk
Three sectors recorded the highest number of insolvencies in Q3 2025:
- Services — 28% (1,469 companies)
- Trade — 20% (1,039 companies)
- Construction — 17% (903 companies)
The services sector saw a 16% increase in proceedings versus Q3 2024, with IT and telecommunications driving the spike (+37%). Economists warn that even rapidly expanding service segments may now face rising cost pressure and tightening liquidity.
Trade remains stable in retail, helped by consolidation and the expansion of modern retail networks. However, wholesale trade faces mounting risks, with a 16% increase in insolvencies year-on-year.
“Construction continues to show the strongest upward trend in insolvencies — 903 cases, representing one in six of all proceedings and a 27.5% increase versus Q3 2024,” notes Paweł Tobis, Vice President of Coface for Operations & Risk Assessment.
“Worryingly, after just nine months, the sector has already exceeded the total number of cases recorded in all of 2024. Even with falling building material prices and rising demand for mortgages, the sector needs a strong public investment stimulus — in road and rail infrastructure, energy and defence — to stabilise.”
Outlook for Q4 2025 and 2026: growth yes — but risk of liquidity stress remains
Recent months have confirmed that the Polish economy is in an expansion phase, but key risks come from abroad.
Global trade conflicts are pushing tariffs to historic highs, while Germany’s fragile economic outlook raises concerns for Polish exporters.
“Coface forecasts GDP growth of 3.4% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026,” says Dr. Mateusz Dadej, Chief Economist for Coface Poland & CEE.
“While more households are likely to increase savings — which may weigh on private consumption — we expect investment-led growth to offset this.
The main uncertainty in the coming quarters will be the shape and scale of fiscal consolidation, especially how the government chooses to generate additional budget revenue.”
Insolvencies may continue rising — but for different reasons
Coface expects the number of insolvencies to keep growing in the short term — but increasingly as a result of strategic use of restructuring tools, not due to business collapse. These mechanisms allow companies to avoid bankruptcy and regain liquidity. Over time, the growth rate of insolvency cases should gradually slow down.
