The OPEC+ decision to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day starting September 2025 did not significantly affect crude prices, as the market had already priced in this move. This change is part of a broader plan to gradually roll back earlier production cuts, justified by the organization based on the positive state of the global economy and low oil inventories.
Commodity prices remained stable: Brent crude rose only 0.16% to $69.78 per barrel, while WTI gained 0.28%, reaching $67.52. The calm market reaction confirms that the OPEC+ decision was aligned with prior signals and did not come as a surprise.
At the same time, new risk factors emerged linked to geopolitical tensions. The United States threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on entities purchasing Russian oil, aiming to increase pressure on Moscow. Some tankers changed their routes following the announcement of these sanctions, yet India — one of the main buyers of Russian crude — pledged to continue purchases despite threats from the Trump administration.
Should India decide to cut Russian oil imports, the market could lose up to 1.7 million barrels per day. Such a scenario might offset the forecasted supply surplus in Q4 2025 and in 2026, giving OPEC+ greater flexibility to further ease cuts at the level of 1.66 million barrels per day.
According to Goldman Sachs estimates, the actual supply increase from the eight OPEC+ countries could reach as much as 1.7 million barrels per day, since other cartel members have curtailed production following previous breaches of agreed limits.
However, concerns persist about the impact of Trump-era trade policies on global economic growth and fuel demand, especially amid weaker data from the U.S. labor market. While the OPEC+ decision was neutral for prices, geopolitical factors could tip the balance of supply and demand in the global oil market in the coming months.
Author: Krzysztof Kamiński – OANDA TMS
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/krotkoterminowa-stabilnosc-cen-ropy-dlugoterminowe-ryzyka-geopolityczne-16875
