Despite assurances made last week by President Donald Trump, no agreement with Iran has yet been reached, and market participants are currently observing only a fragile ceasefire. Its durability remains uncertain, as reports have emerged in recent days of further exchanges of attacks between the United States and Iran, increasing the risk of renewed escalation.
The situation in the Middle East once again shows how strongly the oil market is linked to the condition of the global economy. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) points out that the conflict in the region has become one of the key threats to global growth, as it restricts the supply of energy commodities, raises transport costs and increases uncertainty on financial markets.
The Strait of Hormuz is of particular importance. In 2025, around 20% of global production of oil and petroleum products and 25% of seaborne oil trade passed through this route. Disruptions to shipping in this area have already led to higher energy prices, while a prolonged crisis could have much more serious consequences for economies dependent on imported energy commodities.
The OECD warns that in a scenario of prolonged disruptions, global inflation could be around 0.4 percentage points higher in 2026 and 1.3 percentage points higher in 2027. This would mean that oil would become not only a problem for the energy market, but also a factor making price stabilisation across the broader economy more difficult.
The greatest risk lies in a simultaneous weakening of economic growth and intensification of inflationary pressure. Such a combination is particularly challenging for governments and central banks, because traditional economic policy tools then work in conflicting directions. Interest rate hikes may help contain inflation, but at the same time they deepen the economic slowdown. Fiscal support for households and companies may soften the impact of more expensive energy, but with limited oil supply it may additionally increase demand and strengthen price pressure.
The problem is even greater because many countries already have high levels of public debt, which limits their ability to respond to a crisis. In this context, the OECD assumes in another report that the Bank of England will not raise interest rates this year, even though average annual inflation in the United Kingdom is expected to reach 3.7%, or 170 basis points above the BoE’s inflation target.
In the pessimistic scenario described by the OECD, global growth could fall to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 — levels rarely seen outside major crises such as the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 or the COVID-19 pandemic.
Some economies could enter recession or come close to it, while deteriorating investment sentiment could also weaken sectors currently seen as sources of economic resilience, including investment related to artificial intelligence. Higher oil prices, weaker demand and greater volatility on financial markets would create an environment in which companies would take a more cautious approach to decisions concerning expansion, employment and financing new projects.
If the crisis continues, oil may become a factor deepening the global slowdown and forcing central banks and governments to make costly and difficult decisions. In this sense, the situation in the Middle East is one of the main risks to the stability of the global economy in the coming years.
Brent crude has recovered from last week’s decline of more than 9%, while August futures contracts for this benchmark on ICE Futures Europe are priced at USD 97.93 per barrel.
Source: CEO.com.pl
