Crude oil prices extended their declines for the second consecutive day. Brent crude slipped below USD 67 per barrel, while WTI approached USD 63. The market is increasingly unsettled, driven by concerns over potential production increases from OPEC+ members, weakening economic activity in the United States, and rising inventories at the Cushing hub in Oklahoma. Inventories there grew by 2.1 million barrels last week alone, the largest weekly increase since March.
Among institutions maintaining a bearish outlook is Goldman Sachs, which continues to issue negative forecasts. According to the bank, oversupply could persist for many months, with Brent prices possibly dropping to as low as USD 50 by the end of 2026. Since the beginning of 2025, crude prices have already fallen by about 10%, largely due to OPEC+ gradually lifting earlier production cuts in an effort to regain global market share.
Additional pressure comes from stagnant economic activity in the U.S. The number of job openings has fallen to the lowest level in ten months, intensifying concerns about future demand for energy commodities. The spread between Brent futures contracts has narrowed significantly, suggesting that the market is no longer as tight as before. Seasonal weakness in refinery demand is also weighing on prices, further limiting potential price gains.
Geopolitical factors are also shaping the market. The United States continues to pressure Russian oil exports, including through sanctions targeting India, one of Moscow’s key buyers. President Trump has signaled that further measures could be introduced. Washington’s aim is to curb Russian oil exports, about 90% of which currently flow to China and India.
The outlook for the oil market remains tense. With supply rising, demand weakening, inventories building, and geopolitical risks mounting, prices may continue to fall—especially if OPEC+ increases output further and macroeconomic data fails to show a meaningful recovery in demand.
Author: Krzysztof Kamiński – OANDA TMS
Source: ceo.com.pl
