According to fuel market experts, stabilising the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not be enough for the oil market to return to conditions seen before the outbreak of the war in the Middle East. Another crucial factor will be restarting refineries damaged in the attacks. Experts also believe that the OPEC+ decision to increase crude oil production may have only a limited impact, while many producing countries are looking for alternative transport routes.
“Stabilising the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not be enough for us to talk about a return to normality. First, the inventories depleted during the conflict need to be replenished. Damaged infrastructure also has to be restored. Another problem is Houthi activity in the Red Sea and around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, which also affects the shipping of commodities,” Dr Jakub Bogucki, a fuel market analyst at E-petrol.pl, told the Newseria news agency. “All of these factors would have to come together before we could speak of normalisation.”
Global technology and analytics company Kpler reports that average refinery throughput in the Middle East stood at 6.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 27% lower than a year earlier. Damage to refineries in countries including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait will require repairs that could result in shutdowns lasting until the end of the year.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its August 2026 report, forecasts that global oil demand will fall by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, while global supply will decline by an average of 4.3 million barrels per day. Analysts point to continued disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as one of the key factors behind the decline.
“Analysts are already making relatively cautious estimates that we will feel the effects of the current situation at least until the end of the year, particularly the problems connected with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or the lack of it. That assumes, of course, that the conflict ends soon. The longer it continues, the longer it will take to restore normal conditions,” Bogucki said.
The IEA says the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is becoming increasingly urgent as oil inventories are gradually depleted. The agency expects a rebound next year, with demand projected to increase by 2.4 million barrels per day and supply by 8.3 million barrels per day.
In July, seven OPEC+ countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman – decided to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day from August. A similar decision was taken in August and is due to take effect in September.
“At this point, OPEC policy is much more theoretical than it was just a few months ago. A large share of these countries’ production has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz or is otherwise constrained by transit capacity from the Persian Gulf. It therefore appears to be little more than a declaration on paper,” the E-petrol.pl analyst said. “Many OPEC countries are trying to find alternative routes for transporting their crude, but this is not easy. It is certainly not possible to replace the volumes that were normally exported through the Persian Gulf.”
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Strait of Hormuz, which provides an outlet from the Persian Gulf, and the Strait of Malacca, connecting the Indian and Pacific oceans, are among the world’s most strategically important chokepoints for oil transit.
“The current situation is certainly making the oil market acutely aware of its dependence on a number of global chokepoints that need to be monitored very closely to ensure that shipping lanes remain open and secure. Disruption can lead to paralysis on an almost global scale. We are seeing this now in the case of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, but we should also remember the Strait of Malacca, the Panama Canal and many other chokepoints around the world that can be relatively easily disrupted and create problems not only for oil shipping but for global trade more broadly,” Bogucki said.
The situation in Russia’s refining sector is another factor affecting the global fuel market. According to data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Russian petroleum product exports fell by 23% in July compared with June, to 4.7 million tonnes. This was the lowest level on record and half the volume recorded a year earlier.
Russia is also facing problems supplying its domestic market. The disruption is linked to Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries in different parts of the country.
“This situation is causing very serious disruption to Russia’s export and production capacity. Its importance to the oil market is declining,” the E-petrol.pl analyst said. “Despite European Union sanctions, Russia has remained and continues to be a very important exporter of both crude oil and refined fuels to markets around the world, particularly in Asia.”
According to CREA, China remains the largest buyer of Russian crude oil, accounting for half of Russia’s exports. India ranks second with 37%, followed by Turkey and the European Union, each with 5%.
Among buyers of Russian petroleum products, Turkey accounts for 26%, China for 12% and Brazil for 11%.
“This certainly does not remove Russia from the global competition for commodity exports. It remains an important player worldwide, particularly for Asian buyers. However, Russia’s capacity has been significantly damaged, especially when it comes to producing finished fuels. We should remember that Russia supplied many countries with diesel fuel, much of it produced in its own refineries,” Bogucki said.
According to Kpler, many refineries outside the conflict zone are operating close to maximum capacity in an attempt to compensate for lower supplies from the Middle East and Russia.
For example, weekly refinery utilisation in the United States recently increased to 97%. With only limited spare refining capacity outside the conflict zone, the global market has relatively little room to compensate for any further decline in supplies.
“If we were to identify those benefiting from the current situation, it is certainly favourable for producers that can export their crude to global markets without facing major security risks, including U.S. oil producers and producers in West Africa. These countries currently face no significant constraints related to the security of their logistics,” the expert said.
The United States has become the world’s largest exporter of crude oil and petroleum products, overtaking Saudi Arabia and Russia. This shift is further strengthening the position of U.S. companies in global energy markets.
