The world is likely to face a substantial oil surplus next year. A growing number of countries are already increasing output, while demand is expected to remain constrained, further widening the imbalance.
A 60-day truce between the United States and Iran has triggered a sharp decline in global oil prices. Brent crude fell below USD 80 per barrel after futures prices had previously climbed as high as USD 119 per barrel. At one point, oil was around 50% more expensive than at the beginning of the year. It is still far from cheap, however, as prices remain roughly 30% above their level at the start of 2026.
“The oil market hopes this is the end of the war, but the situation can still change from minute to minute, especially as Donald Trump has announced the definitive end of the conflict dozens of times before,” Michał Stajniak, Deputy Director of the Analysis Department at XTB, told MarketNews24. “We will still have to wait for the text of a peace agreement. For now, the key question is how quickly and to what extent oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return.”
Official data suggested that the number of vessels passing through the Strait each day could be counted on the fingers of two hands. Unofficially, however, the actual number may have been several times higher. Since June, as much as 3–4 million barrels of oil per day may in fact have been transported through the Strait under cover of darkness.
According to this scenario, tankers moved close to the area, transferred crude oil to smaller vessels and then returned, making official shipping statistics appear lower than the real level of supply. The market may therefore know less about actual oil flows than it believes.
The agreement between the United States and Iran is expected to allow Iranian oil to return to global markets through the lifting of the embargo. Iran would no longer have to sell its crude at steep discounts, a situation from which China had benefited most.
It could take many weeks, or even months, before the situation becomes clear and the market gains a better understanding of supply conditions and their impact on prices.
“Supply should rise very quickly at first, because several hundred oil-loaded vessels are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf,” the XTB expert added. “Later, however, it will take several weeks for tanker traffic to return to normal. A return to pre-war production levels could take many months. After the 1990 war in Kuwait and the Persian Gulf, it took around twelve months for production to recover.”
Central banks are also displaying considerable caution and uncertainty. At his first press conference following the initial meeting, the new Federal Reserve Chair delivered the message expected by supporters of a strong dollar: inflation remains too high, the 2% target is non-negotiable, and the Fed has both the tools and the determination to achieve it.
Kevin Warsh accepted the Federal Open Market Committee’s hawkish message, but he also avoided closing the door to a future policy shift. Put simply, the dollar has good reasons to strengthen, but markets were not given a guarantee that the Fed will remain restrictive at any cost.
The Fed acknowledged that part of the current inflationary pressure stems from supply shocks, including energy prices. Should geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices continue to fall, Warsh could tell markets in a few months that conditions have changed and that the Fed may therefore adjust its approach as well.
This would not necessarily mark a return to a dovish stance. It could instead be interpreted as a signal to Wall Street and the bond market that monetary policy may become more flexible. The facts remain clear: the Fed has raised its projected interest-rate path and does not expect inflation to return to target before 2028. However, if falling oil prices begin to support disinflation in a meaningful way, the current hawkish narrative may prove less durable than the projections themselves suggest.
At Polish fuel stations, prices could now begin to decline. However, it is important to consider that Poland has been operating under a period of reduced fuel VAT, at 8% instead of 23%, as well as lower excise duty under the government’s CPN programme.
Global oil prices would likely need to fall towards USD 60 per barrel for retail fuel prices to decrease once the previous VAT and excise burdens return.
It is therefore likely that fuel prices at Polish petrol stations will remain higher during the summer. However, this would not necessarily be caused by global oil prices.
