The year 2026 is set to mark a period in which offshore wind power strengthens its position as a key component of Poland’s national energy mix and a strategic infrastructure investment. Following the conclusion of auctions and the acceleration of preparatory work, offshore wind is entering a phase of integration with the power system, supply chains, and the state’s industrial policy. The scale of planned investments—estimated at up to PLN 500 billion by 2040—makes this sector one of the main drivers of the energy transition, domestic industrial development, and the strengthening of Poland’s energy security.
The scale of investments planned in the Baltic Sea is unprecedented. The value of projects implemented in the first phase of offshore wind development exceeds PLN 130 billion and could reach as much as PLN 400–500 billion by 2040. This represents a level of capital expenditure greater than that of the Central Transport Hub and the nuclear power plant combined. Offshore wind is also becoming a catalyst for building a new supply chain and a foundation for the development of a modern energy industry in Poland, involving hundreds of domestic companies.
“Offshore wind energy is already seen today as a strategic project that Poland has no alternative to. The phase-out of coal-fired generation units, constraints on the development of gas-fired power, and the long timeline for launching the first nuclear power plant mean that offshore wind remains the only source capable of delivering large volumes of zero-emission energy in a relatively short time. This is not only a climate issue, but above all a matter of energy security and economic stability,”
says Janusz Gajowiecki, President of the Polish Wind Energy Association (PSEW).
Industry Calls for Regulatory Stability and Predictability
At the same time, the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), prepared by the Ministry of Energy, reduces the scale of wind energy development without presenting any supporting analyses. The Ministry’s proposals limit onshore wind capacity to 20.4 GW in the WEM (low-ambition) scenario, compared with 34.5 GW proposed in the previous version of the NECP—a reduction of more than 14 GW. Offshore wind development plans were also scaled back to 11.8 GW from the previously indicated 18 GW, a cut of 6.2 GW, despite the fact that recently concluded offshore auctions delivered some of the lowest prices for new capacity in the system.
It is important to note that limiting the target offshore wind capacity to 11.8 GW in the draft NECP does not mean cancelling planned auctions or existing projects. The document is planning and scenario-based in nature and does not alter the current legal framework. However, such a significant reduction in strategic ambition sends a strong signal to the market, which contradicts the schedule of subsequent auctions planned for 2027, 2029, and 2031.
“This is an administrative slowdown of a technology that both the market and the regulator clearly recognize as the cheapest source of new capacity in the system. The consequences of these assumptions will be strong price shocks, the costs of which will be borne by energy consumers, energy-intensive industry, and the entire economy,”
says Janusz Gajowiecki.
First Power from Baltic Offshore Wind Farms in 2026
Already today, Poland’s offshore wind project pipeline exceeds the 11.8 GW indicated in the draft NECP. It includes 5.9 GW developed in Phase I, around 3.4 GW contracted in the 2025 auction, and additional areas being prepared for future auctions, with potential estimated at several gigawatts. At the same time, the government’s schedule предусматривает further auctions totaling 8 GW in the years 2027–2031, demonstrating that actual investment activity goes beyond the more conservative scenario outlined in the NECP.
The positive outcome of the 2025 offshore auctions confirmed that the sector has solid foundations and is ready for further development, serving as an important safeguard against a future generation gap. Without new generation capacity, Poland would be forced to increase electricity imports, weakening economic competitiveness and raising costs for end users.
“In the longer term, offshore wind will play a key role in lowering and stabilizing electricity prices. Each additional gigawatt of installed offshore capacity displaces the most expensive sources currently setting the marginal price, while at the same time improving the competitiveness of Polish companies on international markets,”
emphasizes Oliwia Mróz-Malik, Offshore Wind, Investment and Development Manager at PSEW.
A Flywheel for the Economy
Offshore wind energy also represents a major opportunity for Polish companies. It is estimated that the share of domestic firms in the supply chain could exceed 40%, and this share is already steadily increasing. Completed investments such as the Baltic Towers tower factory in Gdańsk, the Vestas offshore turbine nacelle assembly plant, and the first stage of the installation port in Świnoujście will soon be joined by further projects.
Several key offshore wind investments are currently underway, including an installation port in Gdańsk valued at approximately PLN 1.2 billion, a Windar tower factory in Szczecin worth around PLN 700 million that is expected to create 450 jobs, further expansion stages of the port in Świnoujście, and new service bases in Łeba, Ustka, and Władysławowo. These figures clearly show that “offshore wind” translates into tangible industrial investments, jobs, contracts for local companies, and modern competencies that will remain within the Polish economy for years to come.
“Offshore wind energy is one of the few projects where Poland’s energy ambitions directly translate into real industrial investments and a wide range of social and economic benefits for the national economy. Hundreds of billions of zlotys in capital expenditure, tens of billions in public finance revenues, and a growing share of Polish companies in the supply chain demonstrate that offshore wind is not a vision, but a lasting foundation for the country’s economic, skills-based, and technological development,”
adds Oliwia Mróz-Malik.
At the same time, alongside the massive investments being carried out in the sector, a growing challenge is the increasing level of disinformation surrounding offshore wind energy. False narratives focus, among other things, on the environmental impact of wind farms, investment costs, and the profitability of the technology. In response to these challenges and to build reliable public understanding of offshore wind development, the Polish Wind Energy Association has launched a nationwide educational and information campaign. The project is being implemented in cooperation with the ORLEN Foundation.
