The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) assesses that despite efforts, Poland will not be able to achieve a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. While the country has reached a record level of 30% renewable energy, the Polish economy remains highly carbon-intensive due to its significant reliance on coal. The OECD recommends accelerating decarbonization and simplifying the permitting process for new renewable energy installations. It also calls for reforming the transport tax system.
According to the “OECD Economic Survey of Poland 2025,” Poland is the 10th largest emitter of greenhouse gases relative to GDP among OECD member countries. Although Poland’s energy transition is accelerating, the report suggests that the country will not achieve the 55% emissions reduction target by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. The Polish government also anticipates such an outcome—its proposal for the new National Energy and Climate Plan (KPEiK) estimates a reduction of 50.4%. Coal remains the primary energy source in Poland, though its share is steadily decreasing.
“Poland had a somewhat more difficult starting point, which is why the phase-out of coal is harder, more costly, and will take longer. In the models, it looks very promising; we see a light at the end of the tunnel, the path is outlined, but it will take some time,” comments Dr. Maciej Cygler, an assistant professor at the Institute of International Economics at SGH and an expert at the Center for Climate and Energy Analysis, in an interview with Newseria.
In the “2024_wrapped” report by the Energy Forum, it is noted that coal accounted for more than 80% of energy generation in 2015, but over the course of six years, its share has dropped by 10 percentage points, with a further decline of 15.4 percentage points expected over the next three years, reaching a record low of 57.1% in 2024.
“The replacement of the mining sector is essentially happening. Of course, more support from the state and the EU, particularly for retraining, education, and the creation of new jobs, could be larger, but we must appreciate what is being done,” says Dr. Cygler. “In the mining sector, we are dealing with autonomous phasing out—coal extraction costs are rising compared to the prices that can be achieved on global markets. This means coal mining in Poland is becoming increasingly uneconomical. We would like it to happen faster, but we have to wait a bit.”
The OECD believes that a more ambitious phase-out of coal is necessary, as the current pace is too slow. The draft KPEiK estimates that demand for hard coal will decline to 22.5 million tons by 2030. “Ensuring the supply of this black raw material is essential until the construction of new, stable zero-emission sources is completed. The energy transition in this sector must take into account the fair dimension of the transformation of coal regions. Special attention will be paid to phasing out coal use in households by 2040 at the latest, which will positively impact air quality and reduce import dependency,” the updated summary emphasizes.
The OECD report also points out that while Polish authorities have committed to closing coal mines by 2049, they have not set any targets for phasing out brown coal, which has higher CO2 emissions. According to the summary of the updated KPEiK draft, key decisions in this area will depend on the need to balance the system and the social aspects for the mining region. However, the government predicts that the role of this resource in 2040 will be minimal.
The OECD also highlights the growing emissions from transport, which accounts for 20% of greenhouse gas emissions (with 40% coming from the energy sector). The organization recommends a reform of the tax system to make the use of fossil fuel vehicles less profitable compared to low-emission cars.
“From an economic perspective, taxing or imposing emission costs on the use of fossil fuels is the most effective, and interestingly, also the most efficient way to reduce emissions or decrease the share of fossil fuels, and ultimately eliminate them. Of course, this is associated with some additional costs that users of energy in the form of fossil fuels will have to bear, but it seems that we cannot escape this. If we look at the development of carbon pricing instruments worldwide, it turns out that just over 25% of greenhouse gas emissions are already covered by these instruments,” explains the SGH expert.
The report also points out the high level of emissions from construction (10% share) and the need for investment in building energy efficiency improvements and a shift away from coal in heating systems. With the implementation of the ETS2 emissions trading system in 2027, households using coal for heating will face the greatest burden.
“Very soon, the European Union will start operating the emissions trading system for buildings and road transport, known as ETS2, which will involve taxing or imposing emission costs on all fuels introduced into the European market. This will also affect Poland, and unfortunately, it will be associated with additional costs for road transport users and households that use fossil fuels for heating,” reminds Dr. Cygler.
A study by Wanda Buk and Marcin Izdebski from the ETS2koszty.pl service, “Analysis of the Impact of ETS2 on the Cost of Living in Poland,” shows that for an average Polish family, the cumulative additional cost for coal heating will amount to PLN 10,311 from 2027 to 2030 and PLN 39,074 from 2027 to 2035.
To accelerate the energy transition, the OECD recommends that Poland simplify the permitting process for new renewable energy installations, create a decarbonization strategy for industry, and establish a program for emissions-free heating and construction. The organization also calls for the creation of a Climate Council to develop regulations for decarbonization.
