Poland is expected to become the fastest-growing economy in the European Union, according to the latest forecast from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The OECD Economic Outlook, published on Tuesday, projects that Poland’s GDP will expand by 3.4% in 2026 — the strongest performance across the EU. This represents a notable upward revision from the June estimate, when growth was forecast at 2.7%.
For 2025, the OECD expects GDP to grow by 3.3%. Growth is projected to slow somewhat in 2027, to 2.7%. Analysts attribute the anticipated deceleration mainly to fiscal consolidation and the gradual fading of the investment impulse linked to the disbursement of funds under the National Recovery Plan (KPO).
Investment as the Main Engine of Growth
The OECD emphasizes that investment will play a decisive role in driving the economy over the next few years. Investment growth is expected to accelerate in 2025 and jump sharply in 2026 — from 3.4% this year to 11.7%. This surge will be fueled primarily by increased absorption of EU funds, including KPO financing. In 2027, the pace of investment growth is expected to decline but remain robust, at 5.6%.
Private consumption will continue to be an important pillar of economic growth, though its contribution will gradually weaken. After rising by 4.1% this year, consumption is projected to grow by 3.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. The OECD notes that this moderation will reflect the waning boost from real-income recovery after the high-inflation period, as well as a more restrained fiscal stance.
Exports are also expected to pick up modestly. The OECD forecasts foreign sales to increase by 2.3% in 2025, up from 2.2% this year, and to reach 2.5% growth in 2027.
Inflation Near Target and Further Rate Cuts Ahead
The OECD expects a continued easing of price pressures. CPI inflation is projected to fall to 2.9% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027 — comfortably within the National Bank of Poland’s permissible deviation band around its inflation target.
Against this backdrop, the institution anticipates further monetary-policy easing at a “gradual pace.” The report notes that in the next two years, additional interest-rate cuts totaling around 75 basis points may be possible — provided that the disinflation trend continues and no new external shocks occur.
Deficit and Debt: The Achilles’ Heel of the Polish Economy
Despite upbeat growth prospects, the OECD points to public finances as the main source of risk. The general-government deficit is expected to reach 6.6% of GDP in 2026 and 6.1% in 2027.
The organization notes that these large deficits are partly the result of higher defense spending, but they also reflect structurally elevated social expenditures. According to the OECD, if spending growth remains high, Poland will need to undertake decisive corrective measures to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio over the medium term.
Recommendations
To address rising fiscal imbalances, the OECD recommends a mix of revenue- and expenditure-side reforms.
Key proposals include:
- raising property taxes,
- expanding the use of environmental taxation so the tax system better reflects external costs arising from emissions and environmental degradation,
- conducting a comprehensive review of public spending to identify and scale back the least effective programs,
- gradually phasing out off-budget funds, which reduce fiscal transparency and complicate oversight of the overall fiscal stance.
The OECD welcomes Poland’s plans to establish an independent Fiscal Council as of January 1, 2026 — a body tasked with evaluating macroeconomic forecasts and assessing the compliance of the national budget with fiscal rules in Poland and the EU.
Poland vs. the Rest of the EU: Optimism With Caveats
Although the OECD projects that Poland will be the EU’s fastest-growing economy in 2026, the organization is slightly more cautious than the European Commission. Brussels, in its November forecast, projected Polish GDP growth of 3.5% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027 — 0.1 percentage point higher than the OECD forecast in both years.
Still, both institutions share the same fundamental view: Poland is entering a period of relatively fast growth compared with the EU average, supported by EU fund inflows and an improving labor market. At the same time, however, the country faces a major challenge in restoring the health of its public finances to ensure that this growth remains sustainable and resilient to future shocks.
Source: CEO.com.pl – OECD: Poland to Be the EU’s Fastest-Growing Economy in 2026
