More than 30 countries now support the declaration to triple global nuclear energy capacity by 2050, an initiative launched during COP28. At the same time, global investment in nuclear power is forecast at around USD 2.2 trillion over the next 25 years. Yet many nuclear projects continue to suffer from major cost overruns and delays, absorbing capital and weakening investor confidence. A new analysis by Bain & Company indicates that the cause of many failures does not lie in reactor technology itself, but in the lack of program discipline before the final investment decision, known as FID.
For Poland, one of the largest and most advanced new nuclear markets in Central and Eastern Europe, these conclusions are particularly important. The country is now entering a phase in which key program decisions will determine whether its nuclear ambitions can be translated into a reliable, bankable and executable investment program.
From declaration to delivery: the nuclear renaissance enters a decisive phase
Interest in nuclear energy is growing alongside demand for stable, low-carbon power sources. This trend is being driven by the expansion of data centres, electrification of the economy, reindustrialisation and the need to strengthen energy security. The declaration to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050 was initially launched at COP28 by more than 20 countries. Today, it is supported by more than 30 states.
In the United States, presidential executive orders issued in 2025 set a course for a rapid acceleration of nuclear energy development, including support for new projects, the restart of shut-down units and power uprates at existing reactors. Globally, nuclear investment is expected to reach around USD 2.2 trillion over the next 25 years. Nuclear energy remains attractive to many governments and investors because it combines low emissions, high availability and long asset lifetimes.
“The global renaissance of nuclear energy is real and is being driven by several parallel trends: rising electricity demand, the development of data centres, reindustrialisation, electrification of the economy and the need to strengthen energy security. However, the scale of interest alone does not guarantee successful delivery of projects. Today, we are seeing a great deal of activity at the declaration level — agreements, letters of intent and political promises — but in many cases this is not yet accompanied by the program readiness required to bring investments to completion,” says Marcin Szczuka, Partner at Bain & Company and leader of the Energy and Natural Resources practice in Poland and Central and Eastern Europe.
According to Szczuka, the final investment decision should be the culmination of many years of rigorous preparation. This includes testing the business case across a broad range of scenarios, assessing the maturity of the supply chain and organisational capabilities, and designing a financing structure resilient enough to withstand a long construction period.
“Over recent decades, the global nuclear industry has moved from rapid expansion, through a period of stagnation, to the current phase of rebuilding skills and execution capacity. Organisations that understand this sequence and begin building institutional capabilities to manage nuclear megaprojects early enough will have the greatest chance of success. Those that make an FID without such readiness risk repeating some of the most costly investment mistakes of recent decades,” he adds.
Program maturity, not technology alone, determines success
Bain & Company’s analysis, based on experience from several countries and different reactor technologies, shows that the success of nuclear investments is largely determined by the quality of program preparation before construction begins. The greatest problems occurred where decisions to move to the next phase were made despite insufficient readiness of the project, the owner organisation, contractors or supply chain.
In practice, this led to late design changes, additional work, growing delays and loss of control over costs. The report also shows that projects based on proven technology, consistent replication of tested solutions and a well-coordinated cooperation model between investors, suppliers and contractors delivered significantly better results.
This is why Bain emphasises the importance of discipline. Keeping the schedule under control is one of the key conditions for maintaining control over the budget.
“In nuclear energy, technological maturity alone is not enough. Success depends on the ability to manage the entire investment program: from the quality of project preparation, through access to skills and supply chains, to the model of contractor oversight and decision-making. This is particularly important for countries and organisations that are building such capabilities for the first time or returning to nuclear energy after many years,” says Adam Olszewski, Associate Partner at Bain & Company.
“The greatest risk is starting construction too early, before the key elements of the program have reached the required level of maturity. In such a situation, every delay, design change or supplier-side problem quickly affects financing costs, project profitability and investor confidence. That is why the pre-FID phase should serve not only to confirm the attractiveness of the investment, but above all to verify whether the organisation is ready to deliver it safely and effectively,” he adds.
Three conditions for a credible investment decision
Bain & Company identifies three interlinked conditions that every investor must prove in parallel before taking the final investment decision.
First, the business case must generate durable value across a wide range of scenarios. This requires rigorous modelling of the levelised cost of energy, stress-testing against alternative generation technologies and a clear definition of the asset’s role in the evolving energy mix.
Second, execution risks must be identified and credibly managed. This includes bottom-up validation of costs and schedules, assessment of supply-chain and contractor maturity, verification of reactor technology readiness, development of a workforce strategy and design of the project oversight system.
Third, financing must remain sustainable throughout the multi-year construction period. This requires government involvement, for example through credit guarantees, contracts for difference or mechanisms protecting investors against cost overruns. According to Bain & Company, such instruments have been a common feature of successful nuclear programs over the past two decades.
These three areas cannot be assessed in isolation. A design change affects the cost estimate, which changes financing needs, modifies the investor proposition and requires a different risk-sharing structure. The work preceding FID must therefore be managed as an integrated whole and continuously updated throughout the two- to five-year project maturation period.
Poland faces the challenge of its first nuclear program
Poland is currently developing one of the largest and most advanced new nuclear energy programs in Central and Eastern Europe, pursuing both large-scale nuclear units and small modular reactor projects. The national nuclear program enjoys broad public support, while the involvement of international technology and financial partners, together with European support mechanisms, creates solid foundations for long-term implementation.
However, in light of experience from global nuclear projects, Poland faces the same challenge as all countries entering the nuclear path for the first time: building institutional capabilities to manage a megaproject without previous experience in delivering nuclear power plants.
“Poland is in a historically unique position. We are entering the nuclear path for the first time, while pursuing two parallel programs with different technologies, time horizons and risk profiles. This is an ambitious and justified strategy from the perspective of technological diversification and energy security, but at the same time it is a complex management challenge,” says Marcin Szczuka.
According to him, proven large-scale technology is based on a more mature, although still rebuilding, supply chain, while small modular reactors are only at the threshold of commercialisation and are gathering their first construction experience globally.
“Each of these programs therefore requires a separately constructed business case, a different financing structure, its own risk profile and rigorously conducted pre-FID work,” Szczuka says.
He adds that the key issue will be to shape the governance model in a way that preserves the strategic coherence of the entire program, while adequately differentiating decision-making paths, oversight mechanisms and risk allocation for individual technologies.
“Lessons from global nuclear projects show that success depends not only on the choice of technology, but also on the ability of institutions to consistently manage a megaproject over many years. Poland has a chance to become a regional leader not only in terms of installed capacity, but also in terms of nuclear program maturity — provided that ambition is matched by execution discipline,” Szczuka concludes.
Source: CEO.com.pl
