None of Poland’s 1,020 cities has a fertility rate high enough to ensure generational replacement, and as many as 70 cities have birth rates so low that they could disappear from the map within two generations, according to data from the Polish Cities Association (Związek Miast Polskich, ZMP). Declining birth rates, the migration of young and entrepreneurial people, and an aging population are three trends that will force local governments to significantly rethink how cities function in the coming years.
“Seventy out of Poland’s 1,020 cities do not have a fertility rate that would allow them to remain on the map of Poland in two generations, and none of the cities has a fertility rate sufficient for generational replacement [2.1],” said Janusz Szewczuk, strategic advisor to the Polish Cities Association, in an interview with Newseria. “We are dealing with a large group of cities where the number of residents will shrink by as much as one quarter.”
Analyses presented by the expert during the conference “Development Prospects for Local Governments – Local Government Development Activity Index (WARS)” show that in the first half of 2025 fewer than ten children were born in 72 cities, and in some of them not a single child was born. These demographic shifts will soon become clearly visible in the education system. According to forecasts by the Polish Cities Association, by 2035 the number of children in 25 cities will not be sufficient to form even a single school class.
Another major factor local governments must consider is the migration of young people.
“The number of young people leaving areas where they see no prospects for their future not only worsens demographic trends in purely numerical terms but also leads to qualitative changes,” Szewczuk explained. “Those who leave are often the most active, entrepreneurial individuals who are serious about building their future. The outflow of young people therefore creates not only demographic challenges but also affects the entire social and economic life of local communities.”
According to the expert, in 2025 no new multi-family residential buildings were completed in 516 Polish cities. In 620 cities no permits were issued for new developments. Limited housing supply reduces the attractiveness of many towns for young residents and makes it harder to attract new workers.
“There are rural municipalities that are in a very difficult situation, similar to small towns located deep within the regions,” Szewczuk said. “On the other hand, there are cities located at key transport hubs that are well positioned and attractive for investment, and the situation there is very different. The same applies to metropolitan subregions and major metropolitan cities.”
The third key factor shaping the future of Polish cities is the aging of society, reflected in the growing share of older residents in both the population and the labor market.
“In 2025, one third of Polish cities had more than 33 percent of their workforce aged over 50,” said the ZMP advisor. “This means the aging process affects not only the overall population but also the labor market. The combination of these three processes—low fertility rates, migration from less attractive areas to more attractive ones, and population aging—will be the main forces shaping demographics in the coming generations.”
The results of the study “Development Prospects for Local Governments – Local Government Development Activity Index (WARS)” show that demographic change and the labor market are becoming one of the most important challenges for local government units. Over the next 12 months, 28 percent of local authorities identified this issue as a key challenge, alongside defense and security (42 percent) and energy and the energy transition (35 percent).
In their current assessment of the situation, however, the biggest challenge for local governments remains finances and budgets, cited by 54 percent of respondents. This was followed by investments and infrastructure (47 percent), education (32 percent), civil defense and security (27 percent), and demographic change (23 percent).
“Demographic changes translate into economic changes and affect residents’ incomes, which in turn influence tax revenues for local governments,” Szewczuk explained. “A decline in the number of children also affects the demand for services, which plays a major role in shaping financial transfers. This means the current system will not withstand the test of time or adapt to the changing demographic and socio-economic situation. At some point we will have to talk about a completely new system for financing local governments.”
Demographic shifts are also influencing the way cities and municipalities plan development and structure local investments. In many areas, declining populations mean that the scale of infrastructure and public services must be adjusted to new demographic realities. Increased cooperation between municipalities within functional urban areas may also become necessary.
“In local government spending, the share of social services is gradually increasing at the expense of infrastructure investments,” the expert explained. “This results from several factors. First, much of the infrastructure has already been built. Second, the population is declining, which requires adjusting infrastructure development programs to the new demographic reality. Third, people of working age represent an increasingly large share of local communities, which means they have a growing influence on the election of mayors and local leaders. Their needs—and their political importance in local democracy—mean that a growing share of public spending is being directed toward this group.”
In the draft “Strategy for Poland’s Development to 2035,” the government proposes strengthening the country’s polycentric settlement structure, in which medium-sized regional and subregional cities play a key role in providing public services across their surrounding areas. The document identifies a network of 78 key urban functional centers—from major metropolitan areas to smaller subregional cities—that are expected to receive targeted development support.
“An active state policy will be needed, including with regard to the list of cities identified in the country’s medium-term development strategy as forming the backbone of the settlement structure,” Szewczuk emphasized. “These are subregional cities that will be responsible for providing services to their surrounding areas. Many of them already struggle to maintain their potential, and smaller towns face even greater difficulties. That is why strong intervention and support will be required from both national and regional levels of government.”
